Discussion in 'Weekly stock picking challenge' started by Thierry Martin, Sep 9, 2006.
new to this board. not sure if I posted in right area..
by stock for the week.. EBOF
Nah, anything that develops off the African coast at this time of year will curve Northward much like Flo did. You would need something to develop in the Caribbean to have any chance of affecting the Gulf.
Whops i thought this was to pick the biggest loser for the week, if that was the case i would be winning!:mrgreen:
You can always short a stock
You must enter before the market open on Monday.
Hey, come on guys, that's pretty lousy!
Virtually every tropical disturbance that devleops into a hurricane in the Caribbean originates coming off the western African coasts. And September is most often the peak of hurricane season.
And virtually every system that develops early off the African coast at this time of year recurves to the North, just like Gordon is doing:
How many do you see heading to the Gulf?
i agree that we have weather conditions forcing any african activity to recurve north- Ernie, Flo, Gordy. but i disagree this is normal. also the southern caribean has been pretty quiet. just take a look at storm archives, and unfortunatley september is the month historically with the most nasty ones. I do not wish pain, suffering or loss toward any, and i feel a company like fuel actually do a good service by helping those in distress, as opposed to profiting from desperate people. jmo,and glad you enjoyed the link.
the sad part is its still better than my real stuff this week- OOOWWWIIIEE!
Here is last years; notice no Sept storms that originated near Africa above 20 degrees went to the Gulf
Here's 2004; (Ivan was well below 20 degrees)
Looks like a trend to me; Tropical systems above 20 degress latitude off the coast of Africa normally go NNW then N. Systems that develop between 10 and 15 degrees have a much better chance at making it to the Caribbean.
Forgive my zealousness on the subject, I've been a Floridian studying tropical activity since 1985, which does not make me an expert by any means, but I do know where to research them, and as such (knock on wood) I've never had to evacuate, sometimes just lucky, but luck doesn't usually last for 21 years
Before you get ready to nail me on TD 8, remember it is at 12.5N ...in the 10-15 degree area I mentioned, It has based on past history a better than average shot of impacting the US (assuming development), however none have taken the Gulf route, which is what I watch for in relation to oil speculation.
excellent rigor. i still do not see these 2 facts being mutually exclusive. basically i see a lot of activity this september, and an unusual amount of that activity forming above the 20 lat. with everyone writing hurricanes off already, i just see any development in the sweet spot (td8) as an opportunity for profit. jmo, and again, thanks for the info!
ps- interested in sources for weather modeling. any help/links appreciated in advance. i like the noaa because i view it as as close to the source as possible, but it can be unfriendly for casual user.
pss- imo it is always better to be lucky than good.
Svenwulf, I just noticed that link you mentioned...funny, it is one of the tabs I always have open on my laptop during the summer (along with weatherunderground) the satellite loops are excellent tools for spotting developing activity before the general media.
After studying your posts and doing a little more research on my own, I agree you are right and I stand corrected. I jumped the gun on this one.
No worries, just sharing information
Neck and neck - it's not usually this close.
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