Please Help!!

Discussion in 'Stock picks and trading strategies' started by alpha, Jan 5, 2011.

  1. alpha

    alpha New Member

    Hi Guys,

    Just last week, on monday I found a wonderful a stock called ROVI that was on a uptrend. I decided on Monday that I was going to buy the stock at 57.50. Last Friday, near the close of the day, I noticed that the stock was going to form a doji, which it did. I also noticed that the stock has been above the threshold of bollinger band for the entire move, and that since volume has declined significantly for that day I made the conclusion that there was going to be a massive sell off opening day next week. Moreover, the stock has been bouncing on and off the 20 day SMA and that a reversal would be soon at hand.

    So I sold it on Friday for the profit and next week (this week) the stock just refused to budge down. I am so confused. Was my analysis wrong? Why didn't the indicators work (low volume = New Years Eve)? Was I right to take the profit off of the doji? Or Should have I sold only once the uptrend stopped?

    Please someone help! I have been depressed all week after my mistake to exit. I want to reenter but I keep saying to myself, if the stock doesn't drop now, it will drop once I enter.

    Thank You



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    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 22, 2014
  2. alpha

    alpha New Member

    When I say "Should have I sold only once the uptrend stopped?" I mean should have I sold it once the stock began to have a major dip??

    Jesse Livermore once said that when traders buy a winning stock they are always fearful (fearful that they will lose profit) and when they buy a losing stock they are hopeful (hoping the stock will go up). When, he argues, it should be the other way around. i.e. you should hope that the rally will still continue and be fearful I will continue to lose more money and losing stock.

    I feel like I exemplified his idea. Please any words of wisdom from you experienced traders would be greatly appreciated.
     
  3. Blaine Tarr

    Blaine Tarr forum leader won penny contest 24x won weekly contest 20x

    Yep nice uptrend. Nothing wrong with taking profit. Don't beat yourself up. Learn from it and find another. I don't know if anything will get you to move on other than finding another stock to play. Until then you'll probably still be a little upset no matter how much I tell you a profit is better than a loss!!!

    So go find another stock, and wait for the pattern to fully develop.

    Next time post the stock here before you exit so we can help you out.

    PS keep in mind a doji does not mean a top, it could be either way. Such as a half way mark of a new uptrend. With ROVI the doji was sitting on resistance, just a little pop pushed buyers back in. I hate using candles as the determining factor to buy/sell alone. And stocks on the move are know to hug the upper bollie.
     
  4. BWong

    BWong Member

    There is just no way to tell what is going to happen too far into the future. Way too many, say, thousands and millions of other traders causing the price action to move any which way it is going to go.

    I agree, a profit is better than a loss.

    ROVI looks like it has gone up a lot in the past week or so. Time could be ripe for some shorting as it has to correct/consolidate/come down a bit sometime.
     
  5. alpha

    alpha New Member

    Hey btbulldawgs,

    So really? In an uptrend a doji can also signify a half way point of the trend, not necessarily the turning point? Moreover, can the upper "bollie" really be used as a support?

    The reason why I made the decision on the doji was because I was once told that candle sticks are the leading indications, other indicator will always lag.

    Well guys can you at least tell me that the best decision was to get out on Friday (before the weekend). And if the doji was a half way point opposed to a turning point, then that would have been a signal to get back in?

    Thank You so much! You guys are awesome!
     
  6. Blaine Tarr

    Blaine Tarr forum leader won penny contest 24x won weekly contest 20x

    Ok me must dueth a chart to explanerner. Me need another beer :beerglass::biggrin:

    I confused you, I apologize. I'm looking more short term. It showed weakness end of day today with huge volume. Most likely a top. Look at the Daily chart again, and notice the doji right smack dab in the middle of the up trend from the last point it bounced off the channel. Short term, not long term. I didn't mean its going to 90. In fact I agree with Bwong that it is due for a pull back and should be on your watch list as a short candidate.

    Let me do a chart real quick.
     
  7. Blaine Tarr

    Blaine Tarr forum leader won penny contest 24x won weekly contest 20x

    I used the 60 minute chart here, as I can get a better idea of the price action...... Please keep in mind you will never buy at the exact bottom, nor ever sell at the exact top. Just make Money, preferably beer money, :cheers:





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  8. BWong

    BWong Member

    ROVI just got shorted this morning, down some $1.30+. It was due for sure.
     
  9. alpha

    alpha New Member

    btbulldawgs, I wanted to ask you, how do you get the 60 minutes charts on stockcharts.com. The only available for me are the daily and weekly. Is that only accessible through a paid subscriptions?
     
  10. Blaine Tarr

    Blaine Tarr forum leader won penny contest 24x won weekly contest 20x

    Yea paid subscription, you get a few more features also, and the ability to save 200 of your annotated charts.
     
  11. 8307c4

    8307c4 Member weekly contest winner

    No, you made your money, you made a choice, to have gone further would have been greedy
    and that is a bad thing, thus it is how it is and you should be happy about your performance.

    And yes I realize the results appear mediocre but fact is the half who sell with profit did sell on the up trend,
    the other half sold past the top but very few sell at the peak of the mountain, to try and hit that ...
    Man, I think you'd be better off trying to achieve interstellar light speed travel.

    Look...
    You can't worry about where a stock heads after you sell, you done sold it now don't look back because
    you'll only end up chasing it, so move along, there exist hundreds and thousand of red hot bull stocks right
    this very minute itching for you to throw money at them so waste no more time on this one and move on.

    That's how you do that.
     
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2011
  12. alpha

    alpha New Member

    8307c4 I really appreciate the advice! I am still new to trading stocks.Thank you so much!
     
  13. alpha

    alpha New Member

    I guess the hard thing I have balancing are two contradictory notions.

    1) If you get greedy, you'll end up losing everything. It is better to walk away with whatever profit than let your greed consume you.

    at the same time...

    What I learned from Jesse Livermore:

    2) When you buy a stock on a belief, a profit thesis, that is correct, then let your profits ride. He says, you ought to be hopeful when your right (i.e. the stock is going up as you expect) and fearful when your wrong (the stock plunges after you buy) instead of the opposite -- i.e. being hopeful that the stock will move up after the loss and being fearful that the stock might plunge, and losing your profit.


    Wouldn't you agree that Idea 1) and 2) somewhat contradict each other.

    I feel like what I did with the ROVI trade was I cut my rally on the stock short. I feel like, I should have waited and let the market, confirm that it was exhausted for a reversal. Moreover, I should have gotten in back on Monday after selling it on Friday, i.e., after realizing that the trend was indeed going to continue.
     

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