I'm a doctor Jim; not a stock analyst!

Discussion in 'Stock picks and trading strategies' started by txjeff, Mar 15, 2012.

  1. txjeff

    txjeff Member

    Speaking of Cramer's wonderful advice about the Demandware IPO this am:

    Take Demandware, for example, which will go public later this week and trade under the ticker symbol DWRE. Demandware makes cloud-based software that helps companies design and maintain their own e-commerce websites. E-commerce was a $316 billion business in 2010, Cramer said. It could swell to a $653 billion business worldwide, though, by 2015. The total market for cloud enabled e-commerce platform services is expanding with a remarkable 21.3 percent compound annual growth rate. It is estimated to grow from a $4.3 billion business in 2010 to $11.3 billion by 2015. Cramer likes Demandware has a subscription-based business model, too, because the subscriptions allow for a continual stream of revenue.So how much should investors be willing to pay for Demandware?
    “I want you in this deal when it prices on Wednesday night, provided it prices at below $15 a share,” Cramer said. “Anything more than that and there might not be enough juice to merit buying, even if the company's as terrific as we think it is.

    The reality; It priced at $16 - and hit at least $26.

    As Cramer said after the fact: "Oops."

    I cancelled 1000 share trade on this last night thanks to his above fear in the trade. Can you read my mind?.... :)mad2:)

  2. Thierry Martin

    Thierry Martin supreme commander won penny contest 2x weekly contest winner simulator winner 5x

    I wouldn't be too upset with Cramer about this - he is erring on the side of caution. These IPOs can really be unpredictable, with the stampede of out-of-control greed that moves the prices in ways that make no sense.
  3. Blaine Tarr

    Blaine Tarr forum leader won penny contest 24x won weekly contest 20x

    Cramer has a bad track record predicting IPO's I believe. I remember he was touting some new Chinese social media stock a few months back before it went public as a must buy, only to watch it tank in the days/weeks following the IPO. I want to say it was RENN, but I can't remember exactly. I also don't follow Cramer well enough to back up my statement, so take it with a grain of salt.

    But the IPO market is hot right now, a bunch of these new issues are getting off to fast starts.
  4. txjeff

    txjeff Member

    Of course I'm not upset since it didn't cost me anything. But just for once, I would like to hear some kind of CNBC news/opinion (whether Cramer or other) that didn't carry an equal and opposite caveat that leaves the typical trader scratching their head in paralysis with a set of dice in his hand. They love to make lofty comments that leave me with an empty feeling. Or there is so much negative news on a daily basis on their show, it's no wonder so many are still sitting on the sidelines other than institutional traders.

    Anyway, CNBC is now off my radar as anything other than hearing some world news now and then. But for investment or trading advice... not.

    As one person said awhile ago, "Whenever the market needs some pumping, (and that's about all Jim likes to do), they wheel Cramer out :))) and give him some caffeine. (LOLs)
  5. txjeff

    txjeff Member

    He has repeated many times in the past weeks to "not chase an IPO after it opens". Buy it; let it open; and sell it. Take the penalty the broker imposes for early selling and pocket the money. And I 100% agree with that advice. I'm sure you will see the demandware stock drip down quickly. Their revenue is so low as compared to the stock valuation.
  6. txjeff

    txjeff Member

    Hey Thierry; Speaking of IPO's; is there and IPO sub-forum or sticky discussion somewhere about them?

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