Facebook will be out of business in 5 years. ( FB)

Discussion in 'Stock picks and trading strategies' started by Anthony Dadlani, Aug 6, 2012.

  1. Anthony Dadlani

    Anthony Dadlani New Member

    I am going to make a bold prediction and I am sure there will be many people who think I'm nuts.

    Facebook will be out of business in the next 5 years !

    I dont think they can monetize their 1 billion + users. People come to the service to view the latest news on their friends and thats it !!

    How many of you have ever clicked on a FB ad unless by mistake.

    I log on every day and never ever ever have clicked on an ad.
     
  2. BuyOnDips

    BuyOnDips Active Member

    I don't use facebook much, but never really noticed their ads either. GM pulled their ads saying it wasn't effective on facebook. Google adwords is the way to go if you want to advertise. Another company recently stated that they think a large number of their facebook ads were not clicked on from people, but from bots. http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?singlepost=2997384

    It will be hard for them to monetize the mobile space too. There's not enough room on the screens for ads. They might survive 5 years, but I believe their growth is over. I eventually see FB as a penny stock.

    http://www.google.com/trends/?q=facebook,+myspace
     
  3. shulink

    shulink Member

    They might not be over in 5 years, but they are definitely not a stock to hold for long term. I much prefer to hold Google as they have an unique product that no one else can compete. Facebook is not unique and might be replace by some new trend or other websites.
     
  4. Xring01

    Xring01 Member

    In My Opinion,

    Facebook went public for only one reason, so that they Upper Level Management who had a stake in the company, could get paid...

    Facebook is not company that needed more funds to invest in other opportunities to gain more profits, WHICH IS WHY MOST COMPANY's GO PUBLIC... Facebook really doesnt fit the your typical stock type of company.

    Due to these reasons, I agree that facebook will not be in business for long... Once the stock drops below $7, Zuckerburg will probably take all the money he made in the IPO, use less than 10% of it, buy all the stock back for less that 15%, take the company private again.

    He will still have Billions in the bank...

    But thats my opinion.
     
  5. Thierry Martin

    Thierry Martin supreme commander won penny contest 2x weekly contest winner simulator winner 5x

    I think Facebook was doomed when they went public - they can't sustain the business now without increasing revenue, and the only way they can do that is by increasing the density of ads, and that will drive people away. Myspace went belly up when they were forced to double their ads to pay the bills.
     
  6. cramerica1972

    cramerica1972 Active Member

    I would NEVER buy fb stock.my biggest mistake investing was in 2008,not buying apple when it was under$20/share.
     
  7. Jeff Strongman

    Jeff Strongman New Member

    I have always agreed on facebook...Things like this and twitter and myspace ne er have long term legs. I never even look at ads. Google is this generations microsoft and are here to say. Unfortunately I am broke and can not short facebook but yes the long term value will be nothing. It is really a worthless site that people just use to pass time. Contains no useful info.
     
  8. Thierry Martin

    Thierry Martin supreme commander won penny contest 2x weekly contest winner simulator winner 5x

    I think a lot of people like using it, and it is full of useful info for many people, and is a great way for people to connect. Like CB radio if you are old enough to remember the 60s/70s. The problem is that although it may be good, no one is willing to pay for it, and the ads will either annoy people and drive them away or not create enough revenue for the advertisers. Facebook seems to be aware of this, and is desperately trying to acquire another business to justify it's absurd market cap.
     
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2014
  9. Acstudio

    Acstudio Well-Known Member won penny contest 44x won weekly contest 40x won weekly contest 41x simulator winner 20x

    Kinda like television.

    Anyway, I have no directional opinion on FB myself but I think what has been missed in this from the beginning (maybe they didn't have this 2 yeas ago but) is the game apps. I'm guessing they have found a way to monetize that. And being a business owner with a business facebook page I get offers all the time on how to promote the page for money. But ye all of these are one news story away about how "usership has dropped off" to a downward spiral.

    Ye I NEVER click on ads either but I don't even click on google ads or anything else and they seem to be doing ok.
     
  10. Blaine Tarr

    Blaine Tarr forum leader won penny contest 24x won weekly contest 20x

    It's been almost 2 years since this thread was started. I don't see them being 'out of business' in the next 3. As with all businesses you adapt to market conditions and new technology or someone else will. I do actually like their new direct ad process. You can literally steal direct competitors customers.

    An example could be: Target could setup an ad that goes after people who 'like' the Walmart page in attempt to get those shoppers next time. No wasting money on generic ads targeting too broad of a market. Go after only the customers you want and save $$$ on your ad budget.

    Zuckerberg isn't dumb. He'll make the right transitions when necessary. All the acquisitions lately that have potential down the road are a sign of this. He's not shy about dropping billions if he thinks the software/product can help people and make more billions later.
     
  11. Thierry Martin

    Thierry Martin supreme commander won penny contest 2x weekly contest winner simulator winner 5x

    I wouldn't give him credit for not being shy - it's not his money, it's the suckers who bought the stock's money.
     
    Kenpolean likes this.
  12. Kenpolean

    Kenpolean Member won penny contest 2x won weekly contest 6x

    Although I don't believe FaceBook's demise is only 3 years away, I do agree that FaceBook (Twitter, Instagram, SnapChat, etc) will eventually die out (i.e. be discarded by the mainstream), and MySpace is already dead. The reason is because these companies don't provide a real product or service. They are merely an avenue of social connecting/communicating, and the avenue is constantly evolving. For examples... does anybody use PalTalk anymore? MSM Messenger? Windows Live? AIM? Netscape? CompuServe?
     
  13. Thierry Martin

    Thierry Martin supreme commander won penny contest 2x weekly contest winner simulator winner 5x

    Don't forget AOL - they tried to preempt the internet and sell it to their customers. The only thing Facebook really has is a gigantic forum. They sell advertising on their forum. Sort of like here but a little bit bigger. One day somebody will do it better. My 15 year old son used to use Facebook when it was cool. It is not cool anymore. You think he is going to start using it again for any reason?
     
  14. Kenpolean

    Kenpolean Member won penny contest 2x won weekly contest 6x

    Once teens deem something "not cool", it's a game-changer. My 22-yr old daughter is a very very social person and thus still uses FB regularly. However, my wife and my 17-yr old daughter rarely use FB anymore, and I never had an account in the first place. In my opinion, those people who are addicted to checking FB 7 times a day only have the time to do that because they don't have a real life to attend to.
     

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