Facebook- Private Equity

Discussion in 'Stock picks and trading strategies' started by Blaine Tarr, Jan 4, 2011.

  1. Blaine Tarr

    Blaine Tarr forum leader won penny contest 24x won weekly contest 20x

    Making Money. $0.46 a share in 2011. At $40 a share that's a P/E of 87 :beerglass:

    [​IMG]
     
  2. Technical Alchemist

    Technical Alchemist forum leader won penny contest 13x won weekly contest 12x

    Yea, but it grew revenue at 180% in 2010 and had 64.3% revenue growth in 2011. Don't know what's projected for 2012 and 2013 based on a cursory glance of the image you provided but a trailing PEG Ratio of 1.35 doesn't seem unreasonable.

    For the record I hope this thing crashes and burns because I think Zuckerberg is a giant douche and I will not be a buyer of Facebook nor will I ever be a user of Facebook for their many privacy violations but nonetheless the valuation doesn't seem totally absurd. It's not like LNKD with a 1000 P/E or whatever it had when it IPO'd.
     
  3. Doodman

    Doodman Member won penny contest 7x won weekly contest 3x

    I'll pass too.
     
  4. vietscouty

    vietscouty New Member

    I don't know if having some shares from the lead underwriter (MS) would even do anything. I'm thinking of selling since I think Suckabird is a douche. I was wondering why I was getting all of these random calls, now I know. But to make things even, I prank call the number back. FYI, there is a documentary of what a "Douche" is by NatGeo.
     
  5. txjeff

    txjeff Member

    Whether we like Facebook or not, I have to look at this a little like the Groupon IPO or the Google IPO. A way high priced open and a fairly quick trouncing within 30 minutes. (although I'm not sure how that happened with Groupon cause I don't remember seeing any shorts available on day one). ?
    Anyway, it did bounce up $10 on open. I expect that Facebook will bounce at least that much. So if you don't need a brinks truck to make a trade on it, I might do it. AND, I might sell it the minute it bounces. You're allowed to do that with an IPO you know.
     
  6. Blaine Tarr

    Blaine Tarr forum leader won penny contest 24x won weekly contest 20x

    LOL yeah that's been the plan all along. Just hope there are shares to short near the top this time, LNKD had shares, but I didn't see any GRPN either. :beerglass:
     
  7. txjeff

    txjeff Member

    I forgot to mention, they said today on the news that the reason for the hurry to get the IPO this year is to take advantage of the Bush tax laws, before a pres yanks them, since it give breaks to the hot shots.
     
  8. Blaine Tarr

    Blaine Tarr forum leader won penny contest 24x won weekly contest 20x

    ZNGA going on news that Facebook makes 12% of their revenue from them.....

    EDIT:

    RENN trying to follow, setting up intra-day breakout
     
    Last edited: Feb 2, 2012
  9. Blaine Tarr

    Blaine Tarr forum leader won penny contest 24x won weekly contest 20x

    Still going to be awhile, Mid May is rumor, SEC has to review the S-1, Facebook will make adjustments if needed, and the the SEC will review again, etc. Takes about 3 months to process if everything is clear.
     
  10. Brian

    Brian Member

    Renn is a yo yo, hanging around 4-6 bucks a share. That's my kind of thing, but I prefer something way more volatile. I bought PAL because it's often extreme.

    I see FB being anything but that. Even if it was a winner, it wouldn't interest me. It'll be like all the other biggest names--SLOW.
     
  11. Blaine Tarr

    Blaine Tarr forum leader won penny contest 24x won weekly contest 20x

    LOL, yeah did you see what ZNGA did on Thursday/Friday????

    Due for a pullback then maybe powers higher. I suppose these could all be in play going through May.
     
  12. Blaine Tarr

    Blaine Tarr forum leader won penny contest 24x won weekly contest 20x

    PAL?

    Usually more volatile to the downside and then slowly comes back up.

    Did you see what ZNGA did on Thursday & Friday? RENN was in play and did the same thing a few days earlier. The key is just finding the hot stocks and riding the momentum.
     
  13. Here's my take on the Facebook IPO, Coming from the perspective of a college student investor, favoring long term trends and such.

    I tend to have a strong feeling through my research that Facebook will try to heavily compete with Google, Yahoo, Apple and Microsoft in several areas. I think the most promising is going to be attack Google's practical monopoly on search and compete with all of its 'free' services. We have already seen that with Facebook Mail directly targeting Gmail. I expect search, television, mobile, etc.
     
  14. Blaine Tarr

    Blaine Tarr forum leader won penny contest 24x won weekly contest 20x

    Its Official. Target Date May 18th, priced between $28/35. Get your popcorn ready. Might even bring some fireworks.
     
  15. Behaviouralinvestor

    Behaviouralinvestor New Member

    Agreed, looking at this from both behavioural perspective and with the price pressure hypothesis in mind whatever price facebook starts up at we can expect a rise at the beggining, then are likely to see long run underperformance.

    I wrote a blogpost on this a few days back feel free to check it out!
     
  16. Behaviouralinvestor

    Behaviouralinvestor New Member

    Be wary with Zynga, as a large propotion of revenues come from facebook this means that they are in a very weak bargaining position. If facebook noticing Zynga making big profits they are bound to want a slice and renogtiate the service agreement driving zynga operating margins down.
     
  17. txjeff

    txjeff Member

    They're here.

    Fidelity is pleased to announce that we are able to provide eligible customers* (see *Eligibility below) with the possibility of participating in the following public offering:

    Name of issuer
    Facebook, Inc.
    Industry
    Technology - Software
    Security type
    Common Stock
    Expected size of offering
    337,415,352 Shares
    Expected price range
    $28.00 to $35.00
    Offering type
    Initial Public Offering
    Distribution by
    The Issuer and Selling Shareholders
    Expected pricing date
    05/17/2012
    Indication of Interest Period
    05/07/2012 to 05/15/2012 by (4pm EST)
     
  18. alvyeo

    alvyeo Member

  19. SigWard

    SigWard New Member

    There are more ways you can invest in Facebook before the IPO by buying shares in companies that already have a stake in the company

    you can think of GSV or Tencent holdings.
     
  20. SigWard

    SigWard New Member

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