Dow charting

Discussion in 'Stock picks and trading strategies' started by avontureke, Feb 12, 2014.

  1. avontureke

    avontureke Active Member

    not a suprise that it is starting to look like a spike....typical for such a shortsqueez

    Dangerous to be trading it due to market conditions.

    regular spike.jpg
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 22, 2014
  2. avontureke

    avontureke Active Member

    and we got wat turns out to be an epic support/resistance at 15960...

    have a good look at when that support had a function...at the 5 year chart.
     
  3. avontureke

    avontureke Active Member

    some amazing stuff here...we are getting sucked towards the orange support at 16025

    all of this pure technical...

    I wonder how long its gonna take this time to bring it down again... somethingelse.jpg
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 22, 2014
  4. avontureke

    avontureke Active Member

    not yet a breakout...although a pretty ammazing uptick. nog niet.jpg
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 22, 2014
  5. avontureke

    avontureke Active Member

    we have a stunning bullish setup now...a child can see that. But the problem is that this pattern has not broken out yet and there is still room to turn it bearish.

    So I'm not turning bull just jet....8)
     
  6. avontureke

    avontureke Active Member

    dow started selling off straight after the bell....if this goes on aftermarket it can be seen as an indication that the buying was indeed the masses buying on emotion since it's mostly the pro's that trade aftermarket
    dowbel.jpg

    anyway...this was one hell of a crazy day alwright :biggrin:

    We were heading to my target but as soon as the us markets opened up the buying kicked in...no stopping it. Good thing we took notice of the not so regular behaviour so we were not swiped away by this hyper bullish buying binge....

    Good chance we take a dive tomorrow...like I said this market has not broken out yet. And a correction is stil a very reasonable option.

    But it is going to be risky....thats for sure
    So we take it day by day...step by step.

    Tomorrow I will be at work btw so I wont be online that much
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 22, 2014
  7. avontureke

    avontureke Active Member

    not seeing any form of profit taking yet....so I'm letting the market work it out today. I'm at work most of the day anyway.

    bit suprising to see the bulls be so self confident. I totally do not agree with with the current bullishness but I cant ignored it.

    So ok...let them have a go at breaking out. We will see how that stunt went tonight after close :cool:

    But I doubt it will work....
     
  8. Blaine Tarr

    Blaine Tarr forum leader won penny contest 24x won weekly contest 20x

    You probably don't want to hear this, but my advice, stop trying to 'predict' the market and just play what it gives us....

    That line chart will make it hard as heck to read the real price action anyway. If you are bullish long-term why not add on dips rather than trying to fight a long-term uptrend with a couple shorts thrown in?
     
  9. avontureke

    avontureke Active Member

    hmm...You should have a look at my twitter account....I'm out of the market since 2 weeks and not trading at the time due to the possible volatility (a few exeptions here and there but like I said on twitter, I'm a bit wary of the market conditions)...only doing my charting. Kinda supprised you think I was in the market. But ok...Perhabs I should have explained a bit more about what I do. Infact trading itself is not a priority at this time for me.

    Furthermore...I totally disagree with what I think you are trying to tell me....I do not "predict" the market like you think...I analize the market and to be honest I'm damn good at it. If you say that I cant predict it...wel then I must have been doing miracels the last few months..;) (for the record I did get most of the movement wright...and I was screaming short when everybody was buying longs...you should have seen that)

    Take more time to see what I'm actually doing....For example you say line charts are no good. Well I'm saying dump does candle's...candle's are crap. And I've proven that more than once on other forums. And I'll show it to you on this forum also if you give me some time.:mrgreen:

    And...my bullish (very)longterm view really has nothing to do with intraday indice trading.Normaly I dont even make that kind of longterm chart but I showed it because of the extreme marketconditions we had. The normal charts you see are backbones...that means leveltargets and directions I use to base my personal trades on or in this case sidelining. (backbones are my own creations)

    No indicators...no other fancy mambojambo that looks great...nothing. Al you see in my charts is what I use myself. Even my supportlevels I make up on sight. Not with fibonacci...nope...I sit in front of the screen and look at the charts. THATS the advantage of line charting.

    Most of you guys have forgotten the advantages of a line chart....and thats a shame. The emotions I can detect in my charts are lost with candle's.

    Im still a bit confused about your reaction though...thinking that I was fighting a bullmarket ? You could not be more wrong !! I was not fighting it...I was claiming it was misbehaving. I claim that the market move was FALSE. And that 99.9% of all investors are about to feel the sting of a serious correction when this comes to turn. I believe the raison for this rally was emotion...and emotion is a bad teacher. Anyway...for now I stick to my view.

    Perhabs I should take a look at my english....? Not explaining it in the same way as I explain it in dutch ?
    kinda thinking thats the raison...

    Or perhabs you should see the difference between an analist and a trader opinion ?
    (when you hear my shouting about manipulation...thats my trader opinion/emotion..lol )

    But hey....try to follow up a bit on my postings and we will discuss this in a few months okay..:top:

    who knows...you might be asking me to explain you a bit about those lines and those selfmade patterns I use...
     
    Kenpolean likes this.
  10. avontureke

    avontureke Active Member

    have a look at this chart...

    1.jpg

    2 days ago I tweeted this :

    2.JPG

    I noticed that a rather less important support suddenly became of specific interest to the market. I have been "mentioning" this since then and we recently saw more of this behavior. Notice also WHEN and in what function that support was previously active. With function I mean what function could it have in a possible pattern that is still develloping.

    Now look wat what followed next !!

    kijkes.jpg

    That is an ultra bearish setup people...its that simple.
    And the glove fits to well for me to ignore it. We are indeed moving up on technicals...straight in to a bearish SHS
    And Ok perhabs you should be extra carefull with shorting it. We are indeed drifting on pure emotion and greed...powerfull motors for a rally.
    But if you start thinking banks don't like taking profits...you are sadly mistaken.:cool:
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 22, 2014
  11. Kenpolean

    Kenpolean Member won penny contest 2x won weekly contest 6x

    That doesn't make sense. If the market is poised to turn bearish with a serious correction, then why should I be careful with shorting?
     
  12. avontureke

    avontureke Active Member

    good question...the answer is personal. I'm working with high leverage cfd's...that's comparabel to future trading. That means I dont only take in account the possible profit but also the possible danger.
    And this market is moving on emotions..technicals and hyper low volume at times. We are in a stressfull market moment and according to my vision we are in danger for a correction.

    Ad to that the nonstop "interventions" from happy politicians, political engaged fed members, the chinese goverment trying to coverup the problems, and possible valuta interventions because of it and you get a dangerous mix.


    When I see a market SHOULD correct but refuses to....I'm not going to fight it. I'm waiting for the market to clear it out and when we go down and all the technicals fall in place I pick ik up downunder and go long again.

    Thats the plan...thats the underlying raison :cool:
     
  13. avontureke

    avontureke Active Member

    I just got back from work....

    nothing much to see to be honest...US markets closed and this kind of market will not start moving unless the US is open.

    Normally we should be falling back to 16150....but with the us closed you cant really be sure of anything.

    basicly a day to ingnore....
     
  14. avontureke

    avontureke Active Member

    nothing changed....we basicly start where we left it yesterday. You can still trade it short back to the support at 16150...thats 40 points on the dow to take away.

    But its still early...the market has yet to start moving
     
  15. avontureke

    avontureke Active Member

    If you went short , you could consider taking a profit here...25 points on the dow

    or wait for it to drop to that 16150 :biggrin:

    donedeals.jpg
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 22, 2014
  16. avontureke

    avontureke Active Member

    I'm out....:mrgreen:

    normally I dont show my trades but this is a very small position since I'm normally sidelining so why not...

    good for 30 points profit on the dow....


    30.jpg
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 22, 2014
  17. avontureke

    avontureke Active Member

    not a bad exit....:rolleyes2:

    not bad exit.jpg
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 22, 2014
  18. avontureke

    avontureke Active Member

    actually...that was a 22 point profit for me.

    it had a 30 point possibility. My mistake...
     
  19. avontureke

    avontureke Active Member

    and target reached:tee:

    yes.jpg
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 22, 2014
  20. avontureke

    avontureke Active Member

    that was a 40 point call...So now we wait and see what happens next. Ar we going to use the 16150 support for some sideway action or perhabs a small attempt to recover a bit ? Or straight down ?

    Several options...let the market show the way
     

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