Discussion in 'Stock picks and trading strategies' started by txjeff, Feb 28, 2012.
Was pretty oversold. I got in at almost the bottom, (I hope).
Footwear has been strong. For example take a look at DSW Inc [DSW], Steve Madden [SHOO], Nike [NKE], and Foot Locker [FL].
I wonder why Deckers is lagging the group.
Deck used to be one of my favorite trades. Then, in January, some idiot analyst gave it a downgrade and it dumped $10 overnight. It recovered to $92 and then the had a not so good earnings report (too warm for Uggs) and again, a big dump down to $74 today. I stayed away from both events. So there is allot of negative sentiment now as there are attitudes too that their Uggs product may be getting a bit too faddish. And they complained of sheep skin material problems for the mfg. So there are some worse targets discussed in the 60s. I will put a stop loss on my trade in the am cause I am not confident that this was just a bounce. It was a pretty steep one and that makes me nervous. But, I put April calls in for more of an investment. I feel pretty confident that this is still a popular stock with a rather large cult following (kind of like Netflix) and it will carry higher. But I will be wary of it getting set up for punishment. It really flip flopped for more than a week after the last drop. You really would have had to buy it, go to and island for six weeks, and come back to feel good about the trade.
Jeff, DECK used to be one of my favorite stocks to trade too but lately, every time I look at it, I come to the conclusion that it is not a stock I want to take a bullish position on. Do as I did, my friend and move on.
Yeah, I know what you mean. There really needs to be some catalyst with that company other than the one shoe. You can only sop up the gravy for so long. It got tagged out this am when I took my wife someplace for an hour or so, thanks to our wonderful fed fear report. "Oooo... he stepped on my nerve! He stepped on my nerve! Panic! (for 30 minutes.) " Always cracks me up.
Glad I decided to go back in today. I just knew this wasn't going to stay beat down forever with the kind of cult following it has. Will wait for another little pull back and go back in again.
DECK looked to be at support but it didn't have a bounce until today. Buying it before the bounce was aggressive. Actually, it looked like it had dropped below support, still it looked apt to bounce. But there was no confirmation. It might continue up but I figure there's something that was driving it down relentlessly, that makes me nervous when anticipating a double bottom.
You know, just about every single stock anymore has thousands of eyes every second of every day waiting for a weakness to exploit and wail on it to make a few bucks. You can see the red candles light up and all the stock is doing is churning before it goes up another leg. I don't understand how these shorts make any money on these little dips. But it makes intraday trading that much harder and more risky.
I refuse to be a day trader, it's a prescription for going broke... and nuts. I have better things to do. You can make a lot of money in the market without wasting time and boosting your blood pressure in the bargain.
It does take allot of experience and it is far more risky. That's why I'm steering away from it toward a swing trading strategy.
Day trading is just like any other trade... Just faster.
Those guys who day trade stocks probably do so in the hundreds / tens / thousands of shares, so, yes, they can make a tidy living from small movements.
I am hopeful DECK will work out for you Jeff. I certainly hope it goes back to the $90 range which is a distinct possibility.
The reason I would not do the trade is...
The stock traded for some time between $80-$90. It tested both extremes a number of times before breaking support on earnings. My concern is if the old $80 support becomes new resistance there is little money to be made unless you were successful at timing the bottom of around $75.
Anyway, good luck. GO $90!!!
Thanks. Well certainly, to me, day trading is gambling. The risk/reward is no better than 50-50. Sure, you can get a better sense of the motion and it does give you an edge on a given momentum period, but mostly, in todays market with the DJI stuck at 13000, it's far more unpredictable. I truly look forward to my new system forthcoming. I made a small profit with Deck today, but I just don't have the faith in it. So I'm out now.
What is your strategy?
As I mentioned in other threads, there is no holy grail of systems that will guarantee you super profits every day. Anyone who promises you that should make you run the other way. Even the group that we just formed, TIC, requires maintenance (once it gets started) to keep it vital.
But, I am enjoying the idea of the controlled options trades that optionsmd.com is doing, and I invested in that training for the next 2 months. It's a chunk of change (2k) but I think it will pay off once I get going on it. And it's a system that doesn't require being glued to a monitor every day watching the market or getting white knuckles day trading, not to mention, better sleep. And, the fact that it uses the indexes, slow moving, to wrap your trade around, and doesn't care about the direction of movement at all (based on the style of trading), you don't care which way the market is going on any given day. It still "requires" maintenance and attention or it will fail, so there is a skill factor that must be mastered to get good at it. But you are making the adjustments to the trade at times of peace, not at times of panic. I like that you start off slow, get the feel for it, and then ramp it up once you get the hang of it.
PS: If you wish to sign up for the course, this forum gets a commission if you do it by clearing your cookies first, and then using this link https://tradingconcepts.infusionsoft...omdbuy/fiasco/ Bear in mind that you may need an account setup in a company that specialize in Options to get reduced trading fees and you may have to learn new software to properly use the system. And remember, I am only talking about this in terms of future expectations, so this is not a testimonial of any kind. Make your own decision about it.
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