A Contrarian Chronicle - The Cramer Indicator (Part 1)

Discussion in 'Tutorials, lessons, examples and training' started by Blaine Tarr, Nov 23, 2019.

  1. Blaine Tarr

    Blaine Tarr forum leader won penny contest 24x won weekly contest 20x

    Jim Cramer: “the marijuana industry is just not what it was cracked up to be.” {Then said he may have been wrong in calling the weed business an “incredible opportunity.” He argued that it’s an opportune time for investors to put the fire out and downsize their holdings.} -11/21/19

    Were the stocks overhyped on the Canada legalization? Yes, but when Cramer says sell a beat down sector I start looking for a chart setup to accumulate. Or Vice Versa, as I was selling while CNBC was pumping the same cannabis stocks in the past.

    TLRY - I was sitting at McCarran International the day it hit $300 in September 2018 as I was traveling back from Vegas. Sadly, I sold my $120 calls in the low $200's (leaving about $10k/contract on the table) in our hotel room before heading to the airport. Nevertheless, I closed out the best swing trade (1900% - $4 to $80 x100/contract) of my life, hungover in Vegas that morning after proposing to my now wife, Stephanie, two nights prior. She remembers it well because I wouldn't shut up sitting on the tarmac about how much I left on the table as it squeezed out another $100/share. She let me trade on a romantic getaway. I had to marry this girl, right? Hell, I was calling out stock prices while waiting in triage after her water broke 8 weeks early with our second child. "Look at this thing go babe!" That's a story for a different day. I digress.

    If next year Cramer starts screaming 'buy buy buy' again, it'll be time to consider selling as it was this last time. Will TLRY ever go to $300 again? 99% chance not. The float is higher and fundamentals matter now. Fundamentals do not matter during IPO low float short squeezes pre-lockup expiration. Those who short early thinking fundamentals matter in this situation create a short squeeze as they have to buy the stock back higher to limit losses. (BYND is a recent 2019 example)

    CGC CRON APHA CANN ACB TLRY GWPH MJ etc. They'll have their day to run again. Is Cramer always wrong? Absolutely not. But his show is aimed to be entertaining to get regular people interested in investing and to sell his books or memberships to his website. You can learn a lot from Cramer if you're starting out. But don't hold onto every word. Do your own research and learn multiple strategies along the way. Use my posts as just another play in your playbook.

    Disclosure: I currently own January 17, 2020 CGC $30 calls accumulated this past week for a short-term trade. I'll add LEAPS if the weekly chart confirms a downtrend reversal into year-end.

    It's only a matter of time before congress acts. Can fundamentals catch up to the hype?

  2. Blaine Tarr

    Blaine Tarr forum leader won penny contest 24x won weekly contest 20x

    CGC - watching for downtrend reversal in coming weeks.

    Jim Cramer - a great TV personality to help folks learn the market, but sometimes it's best to do your own research/analysis.

    I proposed to my now wife, Stephanie, after a quick night helicopter tour of Vegas in September 2018, 2 days prior to TLRY squeezing to $300/share.

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