TNXP (MC $32 M) (Cash $34 M) O/S 7.5 M / Phase 3 Data in 1H 2018 =10+ Bagger Potential !!

Discussion in 'Stock picks and trading strategies' started by DollarChamp, Sep 27, 2017.

  1. DollarChamp

    DollarChamp Member

    Another terrible undervalued stock for you guys which trading below Cash and which is close to phase 3 readout if successfull the drug will have around $600+ Million in Sales Potential . The Company has only 7.5 Million Shares outstanding and Baker bros who are really one of the most successful investors in the Biotech Sector is second largest shareholder . TNXP should be valued right now around $15 per share for their Phase 3 program and huge cash balance and if phase 3 outcome is positive then sky is the limit .GL


    Tonix Pharma (TNXP)

    Market Cap: $32.5 Million
    Cash: $34.5 Million
    Kurs: $4.34

    Shares Out: 7.5 Million


    New Presentation
    http://content.equisolve.net/tonixpharma/media/5834b932b328c4417b28ea179cb3f7c8.pdf


    Phase 3 HONOR study of Tonmya in military-related PTSD enrolling
    •Encouraging evidence of safety and efficacy was demonstrated in Phase 2

    Breakthrough Therapy designation from U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA)
    •Expedited development and accelerated review are expected
    •Potential to file NDA based on one Phase 3 study if data are statistically persuasive

    Proposed registration plan agreed by the FDA
    •Additional nonclinical safety and clinical abuse potential studies are not required

    Patent protection through 2034 in U.S.
    •Composition of matter patent for eutectic, required for transmucosal delivery of cyclobenzaprine


    TNXP: Patient Enrollment Continues for Phase 3 Study of Tonmya® in PTSD; Interim Analysis Expected in 1H18
    http://scr.zacks.com/News/Press-Rel...nalysis-Expected-in-1H18-article/default.aspx



    Conclusion and Valuation

    The U.S. military’s intense interest in identifying safe and effective PTSD treatments is important for Tonix, as the AtEase study is the only controlled clinical trial to show a benefit in treating military related PTSD. If those results can be duplicated in the HONOR study (and Tonmya® gets approved), the Department of Defense and the VA would likely be very interested in getting the treatment to military personnel and veterans who suffer from PTSD.

    Our valuation for Tonix is derived from a probability adjusted discounted cash flow model that takes into account potential future revenues from the sale of TNX-102 SL in PTSD. Of the approximately 8.6 million individuals in the U.S. who suffer from PTSD, it’s estimated that approximately 20% seek treatment. With a peak market share of only 6%, we currently estimate that peak sales of $650 million are possible. Using a discount rate of 18% and a 50% probability of approval leads to a net present value for the PTSD program of $67 million. Combined with the company’s current cash position and dividing by a reasonable fully diluted share count of 8.1 million shares leads to a valuation of approximately $13 per share.




    Insider & Institutional Ownership :

    Rosalind Advisors, Inc. 553 908
    Baker Bros. Advisors LP 510 922
    B. Riley Capital Management LLC 378 138
    Opaleye Management, Inc. 370 000
    Empery Asset Management LP 315 000
    The Vanguard Group, Inc. 184 377
    Heights Capital Management, Inc. 89 713
    Seth Lederman, MD 83 400
    Ernest Mario, PhD 69 718
    Kingdon Capital Management LLC 64 549


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  2. DollarChamp

    DollarChamp Member

    IF P3 is successful then this stock could hit $80-100 per share (= Mcap $600-750M) thats not much for a Drug with $650 million potential.GL

    Tonix's Tonmya Treats PTSD By Helping Sufferers Sleep Better ..Sep.27.17
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4109815-tonixs-tonmya-treats-ptsd-helping-sufferers-sleep-better

    Summary

    PTSD is a serious illness that has devastating symptoms. It affects 3.5% of American adults, or 8.6m individuals each year. The prevalence of PTSD is even higher among veterans.

    The only FDA approved PTSD drug treatment, the SSRIs (selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors), failed to show efficacy in military-related PTSD and have serious side effects.

    Tonix's Tonmya is being studied in HONOR, a phase 3 trial for treating military-related PTSD. Tonmya works by improving sleep quality and allowing the mind to heal itself.

    This article focuses on PTSD and discusses how Tonmya can meet a very important unmet medical need.
     
    Rich likes this.
  3. DollarChamp

    DollarChamp Member

    Another good day but real jump will start once we hit the $5 mark because many Institutions who are not allowed to buy stock under $5 will start jump in . Stock is still a gift here trading at Cash and with a advanced Phase 3 program close to readout .GL

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