Dow charting

Discussion in 'Stock picks and trading strategies' started by avontureke, Feb 12, 2014.

  1. avontureke

    avontureke Active Member

    okay this is my firts posting on this forum.

    I make predictions about the movements of the dow jones. I will try to post some of them during the day's I'm trading. Normally I work from my twitter account and a dutch forum but I'm currently adding this forum since twitter really does not allow you to say everyting that needs to be said.

    Well to come to the dow...I'm very bearish at the time.
    Here is a snapshot of my twitter account to bring you up to date of what I'm thinking longterm :

    adeneerste.JPG

    as a next move tomorrow I was thinking of the following scenario :

    den teide.jpg

    Infact I had that target in mind for a while but our friend bullard of the fed came with some happy speech obout the economy and that kept us up for a while. Gave us a nice window to grab 40 points though.

    Anyway as you can see I work with line charts. And I use simple arrows to indicat direction and levels to reach or to take in account. I call them backbones...because thats basicly what they are. A backbone for me to base my intraday trades on.8)
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 22, 2014
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  2. Thierry Martin

    Thierry Martin supreme commander won penny contest 2x weekly contest winner simulator winner 5x

  3. matison

    matison New Member

    Welcome aboard! Interesting prediction... As much as i try not to predict the market, i can see this happening lol. But i don't think it would continue to rally after the correction.
     
  4. avontureke

    avontureke Active Member

    I'm a bit wary of getting in the market to soon...we made it halfway the move I predicted but we have some serious data coming today so perhaps best to let the market work it out a bit ans see what gives....it is afterall a very risky market at this moment. ahalfwaytwit.jpg
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 22, 2014
  5. avontureke

    avontureke Active Member

    perhabs a little spike towards that support at 15940 would offer a good short entry
     
  6. avontureke

    avontureke Active Member

    this would be a picture perfect next move to trade upon...
    Thats untill the numbers come closer ofcourse

    auntilnumbers.jpg
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 22, 2014
  7. avontureke

    avontureke Active Member

    we are going down faster than expected...this is indicating fear for the upcoming job numbers...
    this is somewhat understandable. There is a growing fear for a real correction so those numbers and the current technical impression give reason to fear them. more bearish.jpg
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 22, 2014
  8. avontureke

    avontureke Active Member

    seems like the pattern I was expecting is forming on the lesser support just above mine. (15900)

    Those are not the entrypoints I was looking for so I letting the market work it out first.
     
  9. avontureke

    avontureke Active Member

    chart :

    wrong support.jpg
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 22, 2014
  10. avontureke

    avontureke Active Member

    this is not what I had in mind as a trading oppertunity...lol

    we could easely go back to 15940 without changing anything about the bearish view. That's to high a riks at this time

    nowyjose.jpg
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 22, 2014
  11. avontureke

    avontureke Active Member

    we are close to the numbers and we find ourselfs smack on the predicted support...:biggrin:

    shame they made it so risky to get there... opschemake.jpg
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 22, 2014
  12. avontureke

    avontureke Active Member

    and there we go.... donedeal.jpg
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 22, 2014
  13. avontureke

    avontureke Active Member

    bulls are fighting back to recover...this is a fight they are not gonna win. 15825 is the next obvious target :santaclaus:
     
  14. avontureke

    avontureke Active Member

    we had some oppertunity buyers at the opening us but the dow clearly has trouble breaking through that 15880

    lacking strenght.jpg
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 22, 2014
  15. avontureke

    avontureke Active Member

    an unexpected shot up by the dow...kinda supprized about it

    straight to 15900 again. Cant see what good they expect of the upkoming number
     
  16. avontureke

    avontureke Active Member

    not much to explain about it...

    for raisons not yet clear we simply moonrocket direction 15940

    this is most likely going to hit massive amounts of stoplosses (probably the raison we went this high) and all pointless because we didnt even break out off the bearish pattern werid.jpg
     

    Attached Files:

    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 22, 2014
  17. avontureke

    avontureke Active Member

    its hands off now untill we see a clear raison for this jump or when we see it fall back.

    For know it's behaving just that little bit to misterious to be good..lol
     
  18. avontureke

    avontureke Active Member

    one theorie I have is a premature build up of short positions. And when we got some oppertunity buying at opening US this could have lead to massive covering of those shorts...leading to a shortsqueeze.
    And with the current "turningpoint" situation the shorters are not yet selfasure yet. So covering is easy to provoce.
     
  19. avontureke

    avontureke Active Member

    this is no longer a rational market at this time. If a market starts to make such jumps for no clear raison you really dont want to be trading it anymore. You close up shop...let the market do its thing an have a look after close.
    This is changing nothing long term but its extremely dangerous for daytraders.
    Its a shame because we where heading in the wright direction.
     
  20. avontureke

    avontureke Active Member

    yup...bulls completely loosing controll...buying everything they see.

    Good thing I spotted the weird behaviour on time. These extreme swings can whipe your account only to reach your target the next one. harry potter rally.jpg
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 22, 2014

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