USD/CHF
The daily chart is showing a large triangular formation unfolding but no clues as to which way it will break. The 4hr chart has a large head and shoulders pattern with bearish connotations and if it breaks down it will probably reach support at the lower line of the triangle at 0.9050. The recovery bounce currently unfolding on the hourly chart looks reasonably robust so there is also a possibility that it could reach resistance from the 50-day MA at the 0.9125 level, although at the moment there is still insufficient bias either way.
USD/JPY
The price keeps on testing a downtrend (blue) line as a resistance, but fails. Another bullish attack was held back by 81.50/60 resistance. Trading is currently carried out at 81.20/10 level. Indicators are unclear, but they seem to be turned more down, suggesting a possible decline to 80.60 level, which will give more grounds to anticipate another dissension to 79.90 level. 81.80/90 – 81.50/60 resistance range breakout will, on the other hand, indicate the bullish victory.
GBP/USD: further downside possible
Sterling has fallen sharply after hitting resistance from the monthly pivot at the 1.6162 highs as well as other major resistance lines from previous highs. It has moved out of the overbought region on momentum indicators and there is a strong possibility the move down could go deeper, initially to the cluster of support at 1.6030 and then perhaps if it is strong, to the 1.5955 level where the 50-day MA is situated and sure to lend support for a rebound.
EUR/USD: break lower probable
The EUR/USD pair has recovered with surprising strength and has rallied up to above the 1.3200 level. This is probably a correction of the previous wave and I expect it to reverse soon – probably before it gets above the previous highs at 1.3226. It has also hit resistance form the 50-day MA, reinforcing the bearish outlook. From here I see a break lower as the next Elliot wave down unfolds, first to the cluster of support at 1.3177 but then eventually to the 1.3100 major support level of a few days ago where the monthly pivot lies.
Analysis prepared by:
Joaquin Monfort and Arkady Nagiev
Forex4you analysts
Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
GBP/USD
Level 1.6200 held back further bullish growth, like expected. The price began to correct, successfully tested earlier breached resistance at 1.6170/60 level as a support and recommenced growth. At the moment trading is carried out at 1.6180/90 level. Indicators are still bullish, although MACD divergence suggests to be cautious. As the bullish trend is now considered dominating, we expect growth towards the next target at 1.6280 level. At the same time level 1.6200 looks to be strong enough to trigger a bigger pullback than on the last session and even become a starting point for a downtrend. Decline below 1.6060/50 support will be a serious sign for the bullish weakness.
EUR/USD: upside breakout
Eurodollar has found support from the 50-day moving average and begun rallying. Currently it has reached the 1.3210s at the upper line of the down-sloping channel on the hourly chart, where it is consolidating before its next move. It will probably continue higher and reach its target at 1.3265 with upside eventually capped at another trend-line at 1.3295. A move down would target the lower channel line at 1.3150.
AUD/USD
The aussie has been rallying strongly and it could carry on higher to the monthly pivot and wave equality target at around 1.0480. From there is is possible it may roll-over and resume its descent as the rally looks like a counter-trend short covering move which rises rapidly and then petters out at the highs. If it goes higher then the next target would be the 50% Fibonacci at 1.0550. Downside support kicks in at around 1.0370 where the 200-day MA is situated and long-term support. https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-p...DUSD270412.png
USD/JPY
The price made 3 unsuccessful attempts to breach a downtrend line (blue line) and retraced back down. At the moment it's testing 80.60 support. Indicators have turned down suggesting the bearish sentiment, which means that currently tested level may be breached anytime soon and the price may decline further down to 79.90 level, mentioned earlier. Decline is unlikely, the bullish trend is dominating in a medium-term, so reversal to growth may commence anytime. 81.80/90 – 81.50/60 resistance breakout will be a signal for renewed bullish trend.
USD/CHF
There is substantial resistance at the daily highs from the 50-day MA and the monthly pivot and the price action has taken the form of a bearish shooting star candlestick so far today – although the day is not over yet. More downside could see a re-test of the lower line of the triangle on the daily chart at 0.9060. A break-out from the triangle would probably see a rapid move down to the 0.8800s at least. There is also a chance the triangle is completing its E-wave at the moment, and although it might overshoot the lower trend-line temporarily the longer term outlook would be bullish with a resumption of the up-trend, back to the upper trend-line at 1.9160 initially before a break higher.
GBP/USD
Level 1.6200 held back further bullish growth, like expected. The price began to correct, successfully tested earlier breached resistance at 1.6170/60 level as a support and recommenced growth. At the moment trading is carried out at 1.6180/90 level. Indicators are still bullish, although MACD divergence suggests to be cautious. As the bullish trend is now considered dominating, we expect growth towards the next target at 1.6280 level. At the same time level 1.6200 looks to be strong enough to trigger a bigger pullback than on the last session and even become a starting point for a downtrend. Decline below 1.6060/50 support will be a serious sign for the bullish weakness.
Analysis prepared by:
Joaquin Monfort and Arkady Nagiev
Forex4you analysts
Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
EUR/USD
Eurodollar has fallen to the lows of the consolidation zone on the daily chart. The gap down last night probably signalled a breakout rather than exhaustion however, there has been a strong rebound this morning. ADX has just fallen to historic lows, indicating the high chance of a return to directional movement. There is no key support below the current price level leaving the way open to a fall to at least the old 1.2625 lows – if not deeper. The monthly pivot sits capping gains at 1.3030, however, there is a chance the pair could break above it and fill the gap from this morning by rallying up to 1.3080.
EUR/JPY: head & shoulders
The head & shoulders pattern on the EUR/JPY daily chart and diminishing volume on the right shoulder is a very bearish sign. The gap down overnight, which broke through the neckline, is probably a break-away gap indicating further downside. There has been a bounce off the monthly pivot this morning but it has now reached resistance from the neckline and I expect it will probably roll-over soon and continue down, beginning a strong down-move eventually the H&S target at 97.75- although support at 101.90 provides a closer target. If there is a break back above the neckline it will probably close the gap at 104.45.
EUR/GBP: at historic lows
The EUR/GBP pair has gapped down to below the support level and cluster of targets at 0.8065 in an extremely bearish move which knocks out the 2010 lows and takes the pair back to levels not seen since 2008. There are two possibilities from here: the first is that we will bounce from these historic lows and last night's gap was an exhaustion gap; this would see the pair rally to 0.8220 probably. Or alternatively, because we have gone below the old lows this could be part of a longer bearish move to 0.7965 at first and then the bottom of the descending channel at 0.76s. We advise you to wait until confirmation tomorrow.
Analysis prepared by:
Joaquin Monfort and Arkady Nagiev
Forex4you analysts
Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
USD/JPY: potential bear move
The USD/JPY pair has hit resistance from the lower line of the descending wedge on the daily chart. This could signal a move lower with support from the weekly pivot and the 200-4hr moving average at 79.10. A stronger bearish move could even target the monthly pivot at 78.60.
GBP/USD
Cable has fallen today and given back the gains it made yesterday when it posted a bullish engulfing reversal pattern. Price-action is still sitting on major support from several long-term lines, and the monthly pivot lies below at 1.6110. There is, therefore, still a chance of a bounce from here back up to re-touch the highs at 1.6301. Looking at the weekly chart, however, we see a dark-cloud cover candlestick pattern and if this week ends down then that would provide confirmation for a bear move, with the trend-line at 1.6000 as an initial target and then 1.5900.
Analysis prepared by:
Joaquin Monfort and Arkady Nagiev
Forex4you analysts
Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
EUR/USD
The eurodollar pair has broken out of a right-angled triangle on the daily chart and begun a strong bearish move lower. After a pause yesterday it looks ready to begin a new wave down, with the next target at 1.2820 where support from the monthly and weekly pivots lies. The longer-term target is a t the level of the 1.2600 lows which also happens to be the target calculated from the width of the triangle.
GBP/USD
The price reached 1.6060/70 target, mentioned in the previous comments. The barrier proved to be a strong support and triggered a pullback up. Trading retraced above 1.6120 line. However, the price is moving down again, trading is carried out at 1.6110 level. Current situation suggests to expect a possible "bearish" attack at 1.6060/70 level, which gives reasons to anticipate another decline towards the uptrend (blue dashed line) within 1.5980/1.6000 range. However, indicators support a possible "bullish" development, so it's worth being careful about further decline. 1.6060/70 support had been mentioned earlier as the key barrier, which could hold back a decline for quite a while. Uncertainty is growing ahead of the BoE interest rate decision, scheduled for today. Therefore it's worth holding on and wait till the results of the meeting come in.
USD/JPY
The price declined towards 79.80/90 – 79.50/40 support range. It's lower bound halted a decline, trading is currently carried out at 79.70/60 levels. 79.80/90 – 79.50/40 range, mentioned earlier as the key range on the way down, as its breakout would indicate dominating bearish sentiment and give reasons to anticipate a possible decline towards historical minimums. If the barrier is breached, the first strong support will be found at 78.30/20 level. Indicators are currently moving sideways, MACD divergence suggests to cautious and get ready for growth. Reversal to growth is also a possibility. 80.60 resistance breakout will be a signal for renewed uptrend.
GBP/JPY
The GBP/JPY is also forming a text-book head & shoulders topping pattern on the daily chart. This could indicate a break lower, with an initial move down to 127.40 and then some consolidation. After that there may be a break through the neckline, initializing the head & shoulders bear break, with an eventual target calculated from the pattern combined with support at around the 121.60s.
Analysis prepared by:
Joaquin Monfort and Arkady Nagiev
Forex4you analysts
Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
EUR/USD: continuation expected
We have now had a break out from the triangle and a move down is well under-way. This morning's gap down signals probably even more downside to come. It is almost certainly a measuring gap which means it can be used to generate an eventual target – estimated to be at 1.2730. Moreover, the width of the triangle gives us an even deeper target for the end of the move at 1.2595, near the old January lows.
USD/JPY
79.50/40 support triggered a pullback up, confirming earlier forecasts and MACD divergence warning. At the moment the price is attempting to breach a downtrend channel (blue) line. Trading is carried out at 80.00/10 level. Indicators seem to be turning more bullish, suggesting further highly possible growth. However, to commence the uptrend bulls have to first push the price above 80.60 resistance. The barrier is the closest after the price escapes from the channel’s sector, so trading can retrace back down as well. If bulls succeed and push the trades above 81.80/82.00, it’ll be a good sign of their strength. If the price fails to breach 80.60 resistance, the pair will have all chances to test historical minimums any time soon. Decline from the current levels is also a possibility.
EUR/NZD: down-move possible
The euro-kiwi is showing a nice bearish set-up although some more confirmation would be ideal before taking a position. The pair has formed a flag-shaped pattern on the daily chart and within this flag we have now climbed to the upper channel line just above the current 1.6550 level. Momentum and Chaikin Money Flow are diverging strongly adding to the bearish indications and there is resistance from last week's spike highs and the monthly and weekly pivots. The pair will probably fall initially to 1.6450 and then if stronger to the bottom of the channel at 1.6000.
GBP/USD
1.6060/70 support keeps on holding back the bears from further decline. The price is now making another attempt to breach this barrier on the way down. Trading is carried out at 1.6060/50 level. Indicators suggest to expect the breakout to turn out successful. If the level is breached and the price breaks through the next strong support on the way down- level 1.6000/10, which now matches with the uptrend (blue dashed) line, medium-term bearish trend will have all chances to recommence. On the other hand, the price hasn’t breached 1.6060/70 support yet, so trading can retrace back up from current supports too.
Analysis prepared by:
Joaquin Monfort and Arkady Nagiev
Forex4you analysts
Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
EUR/USD
A shooting star on the 4-hr chart is warning of further downside and there is the possibility of a bearish move to fill the gap at 1.2520. Beyond that the outlook is balanced as the head and shoulder's pattern has reached its downside target at 1.2525 and Friday formed an inverted hammer which could forecast more upside. If today remains above Friday's lows then it is possible there will be a reversal upswing, reaching 1.2642 at first and then 1.2700.
GBP/USD: correction possible
The pound has fallen to support on the daily chart. It has put in a doji and then gapped up this morning. My preference is for more upside and if today ends on a high then it will be a strong signal for a longer correction, targeting the trend-line at 1.5800. In Elliot terms we might be witnessing the bottoming of a wave 3 and the start of a wave 4 correction, targeting the level of the wave 4 of lesser degree at, again 1.5800. A break lower is possible, however, with the old 1.5550 target eyed.
AUD/USD: parity targeted
On the 4-hr chart the aussie has reached resistance from the upper channel line of the move down from February. This could lead to a pull-back with the 0.9835 level the most likely destination. Longer term there is potential for a reversal and a larger upside corrective move. There is an inverted hammer candlestick at the lows, a rounding bottom on the hourly chart, and today's gap higher could be a breakaway gap and start of a new mini-trend targeting parity.
Analysis prepared by:
Joaquin Monfort and Arkady Nagiev
Forex4you analysts
Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
EUR/USD: rebound underway
The eurodollar had reached the level of the 2008 lows and rebounded as expected. The correction is still rising and my preference is for it to continue to the next target higher at 1.2460 – the level of the upper channel line of the move down of the last few weeks – and after that possibly also the old lows at 1.2500. Alternatively a resumption of the down-trend is a possibility with channel support at 1.2315 the next target lower.
GBP/USD: bounce/roll-over possible
The GBP/USD pair has found resistance from a long-term support line on the weekly chart which forms the lower border of a rising wedge pattern, which has been unfolding since the 2009 lows. It would be expected to bounce from here with the next upside target at 1.5570. Given the ferocity of the move down so far and the fact the wedge has completed 5 waves, however, there is a possibility the bounce will roll-over soon and breakout from the pattern, with a longer-term target at the old 1.35 lows. A breach of 1.5200 would provide strong confirmation such a move was beginning.
USD/JPY: technical analysis
The price failed to breach downtrend (blue) line and hold above. Decline recommenced and the price fel to the first local minimum at 78.80/70 level, where trading is still carried out. If this support is breached - the price will decline lower, to the next target at 78.30 level. Indicators are bearish, suggesting this scenario to confirm. Plunge lower, towards 77.80/70 support becomes a possibility too. Reversal up, above 79.40/50 resistance will cancel the bearish scenario.
Analysis prepared by:
Joaquin Monfort and Arkady Nagiev
Forex4you analysts
Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
AUD/USD
Longer term there is a bearish topping pattern on the weekly chart, however the exchange rate is in a support zone between 0.97 and 0.93 where historically there have been many rebounds, and from the current level it could rebound in the short term before the larger trend pushes things down again. The 4-hr chart is showing the formation of a hammer resting on the weekly pivot which could herald a bullish bounce, with 0.9750 presenting an initial target. A continuation lower, however, would target the 2011 lows at 0.9387.
EUR/USD: more downside expected
The EUR/USD pair has resumed its down-move and will probably continue lower, with the next target located at the weekly pivot at 1.2283. A deeper move might reach 1.2183 which is the target if waves A and B of the move from the 1st of May achieve equality.
GBP/USD
1.5420/00 support failed to hold back the bears and the price dropped towards 1.5280/70 level, which resides close to this year minimum - level 1.5230/40. Indicators are all bearish again, which suggests further decline. However the price has recently approached strong psychological support level, which may trigger abrupt bounce. Current situation is rather unclear, especially ahead of the US employment report release. Therefore, even if 1.5270/80 support is breached, trading won't decline deeper, than 1.5230 level. The price will most likely keep on consolidating at its old minimums ahead of the US employment report. In a medium-term, further decline is the most probable scenario. Sentiment may begin to change only if the price grows above 1.5650.
Analysis prepared by:
Joaquin Monfort and Arkady Nagiev
Forex4you analysts
Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
USD/JPY: meeting channel-line
The dollar-yen has been rebounding strongly but has now reached an important channel-line from the March highs which is resisting further upside. It looks possible that there could be a bearish move down, with the 50 day MA at 78.60 providing the initial target and then possibly the 77.60 lows. Alternatively, if this is the start of a trend change then a breakout of the channel is also possible, with the next target higher at around 79.85/80.00.
EUR/GBP: channeling
EUR/GBP has formed a clear rising channel on the daily chart and has just been pushed back down by the top of the channel, with expectations that it will fall to the lower line situated at 0.8000. At first, however, the pair will probably meet strong support at 0.8055, where a bunch of monthly pivots and moving averages are situated. There is also a lesser chance of a re-test of the 0.8140 highs.
EUR/USD
Eurodollar has rebounded off its lows and is currently rallying in a rising channel. If the rally continues it will probably reach 1.2565. There is a possibility it might even reach strong resistance at 1.2600. A roll-over, on the other hand, would fall to the base of the channel at 1.2465, with a complete breakout from the channel targeting 1.2335.
Analysis prepared by:
Joaquin Monfort and Arkady Nagiev
Forex4you analysts
Technical analysis 25th April 2012
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