EconomPic: Treasuries: Bubble or Accurate Reflection of Slow Growth?
EconomPic: Treasuries: Bubble or Accurate Reflection of Slow Growth? (econompicdata.blogspot.com)
by EconomPic 25 minutes ago
While another economic crash landing remains unlikely given the inventory and corporate funding backdrop, there won't be much room for policy error either politically or at the Fed in coming months. Monthly headline US CPI has now fallen for three consecutive months, which has only happened a handful of times since the data series began in 1947. If you take the rough and ready rule that a 10 year government bond yield should equal the long term growth rate plus the long term inflation rate, then it's clear that a near 2.5% 10 year Treasury yield is pricing in a grim growth scenario.