Bull or Bear Market?

[beatthestreet]

Is today's rally really the sign of better times or it is just a pause on its way back down?

[englishman26]

That's the million dollar question! Literally! Most people would argue that the future will be a volotile cyclic bear type market, not a huge bull. But we can always hope!!

[metalheadrr3]

I don't what it will be, but I am shifting some of my postions to strong stable growth companies and stocks that pay high dividends. I'd rather lag behind the winners than crash and burn with the losers. :D

[setterp]

^^ I like you analogy there metalheadrr

[jacobnbr1]

well we are all not sure but, what i do see is the rsi declining. the s&p, the dow and the nasdaq all have declining rsi and it has been converging for a while now so is the market weak? certainly time will tell. i think cramer has stuck his neck on the line saying we have bottomed. :mrgreen:

[TheChartGuru]

THere's always a bullish stock despite what the market does. I feel that the Naz will go up one more day to 2140 then retrace. The DOW will go to 10,500 then pull back.

The Guru has spoken

[jacobnbr1]

boys i think we go down. it looks to me that we are in stage 4 downtrend. on the nasdaq that rallied back but is more of a second chance offer to exit. rsi is declining the 50 dma is above us, and if you look as a stage the floor has not been touched. the dow and th s&p are in the same shape. someone correct me if i am wrong, i am not familiar with closing above certain numbers but i can read a chart and they look like chit " look out below" of course tomorrow will lead us through another lead to where we go.

[Affirmed]

Theres always a bullmarket somewhere maybe you just need a mad man like me to find it for you. Im feeling bullish lately.

[jacobnbr1]

we can scwoble over it. whatcha seeing in your charts? i see ma's broken and low rsi strength. i see mot going lower i see chk going lower i see almost everything going lower. not to be contadicting myself i feel bulish on the long term view but bearish on the short term setup. now i sound like "booyahoo" :lol:

[jacobnbr1]

THere's always a bullish stock despite what the market does. I feel that the Naz will go up one more day to 2140 then retrace. The DOW will go to 10,500 then pull back.

The Guru has spoken ah-hah! we are going to bounce from the 50 day eh? another bearish indication :mrgreen:

[optimus25]

I don't what it will be, but I am shifting some of my postions to strong stable growth companies and stocks that pay high dividends. I'd rather lag behind the winners than crash and burn with the losers. :D

I wish I had more money to buy BAC at these levels. Glad to see that Cramer changed his tune on financials. PE multiples have been cheap and the whole sector looks undervalued.

People might think I'm crazy but I still like VZ, BAC, & WM.

[optimus25]

As far as bull or bear market arguments go. It doesn't take a day of good trading to get out of the bear funk. I'll wait and see then pick and choose. Got into a good long term position on GILD yesterday.

I wouldn't mind a little consolidation before I start buying again.

[TheChartGuru]

This is the type of market that separates the man from the boys and the women from the girls :wink:

The Guru has spoken

[jacobnbr1]

This is the type of market that separates the man from the boys and the women from the girls :wink:

The Guru has spoken
i just knew somone was going to say that. :lol:

[BOOOYAHOOO!]

Is everbody feeling giddy this morning?! :D It would appear so if you were to read most of the comentary at the various boards here. Or is everybody just happy that they are close to even in relation to their original buy points? :? There is some good news, which could turn into real good news. Of course it could also turn into very bad news. It all depends on how everyone handles the next day or 2 of trading. Let's start with some good news! The high that was put in on the Naz yesterday is a high that will be breached at some time in the future. In fact, if the Naz was to trade higher on the open, whatever that high is will be taken out. So the ball is in the bull's court. The bad news is that yesterday's naz 2042 low will need to be taken out before the Naz stages a much stronger rally. Right now the futures are dictating a slightly lower open. That's a positive actually because the most bullish scenario would be if the Naz sells off to take out the 2042 low before it takes out the closing high. So what is my suggestion to insure a nice rally starting say next week? PANIC! :lol: That's right folks! If the Naz is gonna rally strongly everybody needs to press the panic button so that the Naz first falls 50+ points! 8O

Here's my prediction. The Naz will trade down early in the session but the silly bulls will look at any pullback as a buying opp and will not let the Naz do the proper thing (take out 2042). From there it will rally in the afternoon session to take out yesterday's high, thus sealing its fate. I think GOOG reports tonight. Could GOOG be a catalyst to set off an exodus? Stay tuned sports fans! If it turned out that there were no safe havens I would start looking at some select gold mining stocks and homeland security stocks as the ones to enter. Let's see what happens. Please keep your maalox close at hand! Maybe your crash helmuts too! Unless you go ahead and panic before the Naz high gets taken out. No really! Try panicing! It's fun! :lol:

[Pierre]

Actually, Boo...
I sense the exact opposite, lots of nervousness still a little bit of fear.
We got lots of fed speak today. Lots of earnings. We'll have to see if the google brothers learned anything from their last earnings report.
Natural Gas inventories?
Still lots of negative news out there.
I like TCG's outtake; The seperation of men and boys.
I like your's too. Full of wisdom today, eh...
My feelings... today might be very pivotal, we'll know at the end whether it's T-bone steaks for dinner or Top Ramen.
A little paranoia never hurt anyone.
Well, have a good one, I've got to finish splitting my firewood for the season. I'll be lurking...

[BOOOYAHOOO!]

:lol: I love the GOOG bros take on things. During their last conference call they were saying stuff like, "Ahhhh, we really don't know how to give you any guidance. Not sure we can figure stuff like that out. We're just happy you guys made us gazillionaires. You guys figure it out." Not in exactly those words but it was the general gist. They sincerely do not care what Wall St thinks! :lol: Of course Cramer was having a mild heart attack and was going into a tirade on Mad Money about how those guys blew the conference call. Too freakin funny! :lol:

[TheChartGuru]

Pierre, what is this firewood that you talk about? LOL

Kidding, I live in Miami and firewood is foreighn to me. I noticed that you live in N.C. I'm heading to the Smokeys for Christmas vacation. I want to move to N.C. some day. I'm just drawn to the Carolinas for some reason. Always wanted to own a cabin in your beautiful mountains. May look at Charlston, Wilmington, Asheville, Chapel Hill.

The Guru has spoken

[BOOOYAHOOO!]

TCG You're in Miami huh? I hope you stay safe during Wilma. I was in Pembroke Pines during Andrew. Only had 80 MPH sustained winds but that was bad enough. I think you might get hit with winds at least that strong. Plus it looks like a slow mover. I love the smokies myself! Hoping to take a ski trip this winter. Good luck to ya!

[jacobnbr1]

Is everbody feeling giddy this morning?! :D It would appear so if you were to read most of the comentary at the various boards here. Or is everybody just happy that they are close to even in relation to their original buy points? :? There is some good news, which could turn into real good news. Of course it could also turn into very bad news. It all depends on how everyone handles the next day or 2 of trading. Let's start with some good news! The high that was put in on the Naz yesterday is a high that will be breached at some time in the future. In fact, if the Naz was to trade higher on the open, whatever that high is will be taken out. So the ball is in the bull's court. The bad news is that yesterday's naz 2042 low will need to be taken out before the Naz stages a much stronger rally. Right now the futures are dictating a slightly lower open. That's a positive actually because the most bullish scenario would be if the Naz sells off to take out the 2042 low before it takes out the closing high. So what is my suggestion to insure a nice rally starting say next week? PANIC! :lol: That's right folks! If the Naz is gonna rally strongly everybody needs to press the panic button so that the Naz first falls 50+ points! 8O

Here's my prediction. The Naz will trade down early in the session but the silly bulls will look at any pullback as a buying opp and will not let the Naz do the proper thing (take out 2042). From there it will rally in the afternoon session to take out yesterday's high, thus sealing its fate. I think GOOG reports tonight. Could GOOG be a catalyst to set off an exodus? Stay tuned sports fans! If it turned out that there were no safe havens I would start looking at some select gold mining stocks and homeland security stocks as the ones to enter. Let's see what happens. Please keep your maalox close at hand! Maybe your crash helmuts too! Unless you go ahead and panic before the Naz high gets taken out. No really! Try panicing! It's fun! :lol:

so you think 2026 is the floor and without touching it wont be very bullish?

[BOOOYAHOOO!]

I was under the assumption that the next move down through 2042 would create a strong buying opportunity. Now it is still questionable. It really all depends on what happens the rest of the day. Right now it appears that the bulls are gonna hold steady above the 2060-2080 gap support and then rally to take out today's 2096.43 high. That is the absolute worst possible thing that they can do. So it remains to be seen how this plays out. Of course I am hoping that the bulls do the wrong thing because i don't think that the Naz will rally to a new 52 week high if we get a rally from anywhere above Naz 2000. Like I said. The best possible thing the bulls could do is panic! I don't know why they keep fighting their true feelings. I'm gonna be here for them to pick up the pieces in the end! Jeeeeesh! :D

[Pierre]

Hey TCG;
Yup, I'm still splitting my firewood. Decided to check on the markets. Ugly!
Oh well...
Actually I'm from the island of Maui, moved here in Feb. It was time. Real Estate hit it's peak so we sold everything and bought a new home here in Fayetteville. Yeah I know, what the hell was I thinkin. Moved near my wife's sister who's been here for 30 years. My daughter just bought the home next to ours. She is expecting our 2nd grand child anyday.
Currently looking for land in Asheville, I will build our new home myself.
Both me and the Mrs. fell in love with Asheville. Very diverse community.
We will enjoy our golden years here. I love the coast, but too many hurricanes for my taste. After all I did live in paradise my whole life.
Anyway, Asheville feels good you can breathe there.
Take it easy... back to the firewood...

[BOOOYAHOOO!]

The Naz now signaling buy as it trades at 2080ish, right at the top of the support gap I mentioned. The bulls have one last chance to rethink their strategy. If the Naz rallies off this buy signal to take out 2096 they will seal their fate for some steep selling. I am not sure what the high will be. It will probably be easier to monitor the turn using the VIX volatility index. It needs to trade lower than 13.50. Currently at 15.87. The only thing that can change the scenario from bearish to bullish is if the Naz sells off on this buy signal. If that happens I suspect that the Naz will turn at 2025ish as the VIX trades through 18.50. The VIX and the Naz have an inverse relationship, usually. :D

[jacobnbr1]

we may have to wait until blue monday for this. unless it rallys the last hour. i wonder if smart money is shorting it down.

[jacobnbr1]

arent we like 3 years or so on this bull market? like oct 02 to now is 3 years. i think read in a classbook the normal bull market holds for 2 years or 723 days. think i did. i will look that up and see, i never toss books out :mrgreen:

[BOOOYAHOOO!]

Well Jacob, to me it looks like another classic case of Cramer putting himself into a position to ignore his own advice. I'm not sure if you saw the Mad Money show where he tried to explain how to spot a top. What he said was actually correct. When a top is being formed you will see a round of quick selling, and then a relief rally which the pros use to liquidate the rest of their holdings to the unsuspecting buying public. We saw the beginning of it this past week. It's very interesting how they closed the Naz just below the breakout point at last week's high. I will go out on the limb right here and say that the Naz will rally strongly on the open Mon to take out the 2096 high. True to form the small investor will not want to miss the run that takes GOOG to the moon! :lol: It could all be over before the day is out, or it could end on Tue. I'm still not exactly sure where the top on the Naz will be. But if I was to guess I would say somehwere between 2115 and 2120 so we'll see how close I come. Don't worry if AAPl participates. You have until jan for the payoff. I think that even some of the energy stocks will participate but I doubt the natgas plays do very well, HAL, XOM, VLO, the bigger plays should though. There was a market timing indicator that set off a sell signal yesterday. It is based on advancing issues vs declining issues on the Dow. There were only 22 such signals since 1985 because some stiff filters are applied to make sure that there are very few false signals. This is the 23rd such signal in over 5000 trading sessions, so it is very rare indeed. Of the 22 times the signal was generated the gneral markets fell 22 times! and 15 of the 22 times were double digit % pullbacks. Not good! 8O

[xboilermaker]

arent we like 3 years or so on this bull market? like oct 02 to now is 3 years. i think read in a classbook the normal bull market holds for 2 years or 723 days. think i did. i will look that up and see, i never toss books out :mrgreen:.

There is another way to look at it. The market is flat for almost 2 years now, exactly where it was in Dec '03. Is that the definition of a bull market?

[jacobnbr1]

sall good here cheif. i got puts on a lot of crap. most of the puts i have are already+ cash now except for apple, and that is at break even so lets getrdone and go ahead and let us bears have are day. i thought the market looked toppy back when i originally posted about shorting. i see know what needs to happen and when it does there will be carnage everwhere and many losses on this board. but i am strong to this event happens this week. sorry bulls, i am like cramie. i gots to tell you how it is.
the funny thing is a moving average would have led you to my conclusion within 60 minutes of dd and ta. :mrgreen:

[jacobnbr1]

arent we like 3 years or so on this bull market? like oct 02 to now is 3 years. i think read in a classbook the normal bull market holds for 2 years or 723 days. think i did. i will look that up and see, i never toss books out :mrgreen:.

There is another way to look at it. The market is flat for almost 2 years now, exactly where it was in Dec '03. Is that the definition of a bull market?

i think the question you need to ask yoself is: does the through really matter? or maybe : do you feel lucky? how many people know ta and are waiting for the through to happen? and how many people are waiting for a full break out? i think there is more favorable for the sure through to be made so they can invest with risk comfort. would you buy goog tomorrow? and what would be the risk? cramer probably doesnt have a button for that risk, but yet he still says buy. all aside, i think goog falls and makes that through happen. then i can switch over and be bullish again, of course after the ma looks good :mrgreen: but who knows how long this will go on? read the dow theory at www.sharpcharts.com. if you spend the hours to read it, you will know where we are. it is a nice breif reading of how the market works. maybe you have read it already. my book on the dow theory is about 700 pages. now the only question in my mind is. where it all goes? sometimes i see things and remember what i have read, and other times i need a wise guy like booyahoo( :D ) to help me. normally it is after i do somthing stupid. but yes we go doooowwwwwnnnnn :lol:

[englishman26]

Errm - do you not think there's a huge possibility that the video ipod will be a great success, especially building into christmas, and this stock is going to keep going up??

There's a new phenomenon possible - the growth of portable pod porn! (PPP homegamers!)

And google won't fall! The growth potential in this company is too huge. They practically own the internet and in 10 years time the internet will be everything!

p.s. I don't own any of these stocks! ;)

[jacobnbr1]

Errm - do you not think there's a huge possibility that the video ipod will be a great success, especially building into christmas, and this stock is going to keep going up??

There's a new phenomenon possible - the growth of portable pod porn! (PPP homegamers!)

And google won't fall! The growth potential in this company is too huge. They practically own the internet and in 10 years time the internet will be everything!

p.s. I don't own any of these stocks! ;)

i would say... that there is more that needs to happen for this work out than there is for it to not work out. delays,technical problems, parts supplys ect.ect.ect.. and ppp might be somthing way after i have been to the bank from this down turn. i am not saying these stocks will be stinkers. i am saying they are going to come down in price because they have to. it is like cold weather in the winter( in ohio), but the question is how cold?

[jacobnbr1]

booyahoo: why is it everywhere you go like yahoo, marketwatch,etc.etc. has a column that says "the market is bottoming"? i clearly can tell that in order to call it a bottom it must break out from resistance 1st. so why do they say it has bottomed??? also i think the cse index is getting warm, what do you think? and maybe a bounce time for uti? :D

[BOOOYAHOOO!]

[ I will go out on the limb right here and say that the Naz will rally strongly on the open Mon to take out the 2096 high. True to form the small investor will not want to miss the run that takes GOOG to the moon! :lol: It could all be over before the day is out, or it could end on Tue. I'm still not exactly sure where the top on the Naz will be. But if I was to guess I would say somehwere between 2115 and 2120 so we'll see how close I come. Don't worry if AAPl participates. You have until jan for the payoff. I think that even some of the energy stocks will participate but I doubt the natgas plays do very well, HAL, XOM, VLO, the bigger plays should though. There was a market timing indicator that set off a sell signal yesterday. It is based on advancing issues vs declining issues on the Dow. There were only 22 such signals since 1985 because some stiff filters are applied to make sure that there are very few false signals. This is the 23rd such signal in over 5000 trading sessions, so it is very rare indeed. Of the 22 times the signal was generated the gneral markets fell 22 times! and 15 of the 22 times were double digit % pullbacks. Not good! 8O[/quote]

Hmmmmm, pretty prophetic stuff. I wonder who said it?! I noticed that the poster even said that the energy stocks would participate. Sho wish I knew where's abouts the top wassa gonna be on those.Especially since Cramer is pumpin em agin. Tell us great sage pray tell! :D

[englishman26]

So the sage is predicting a 10% fall in the Dow tomorrow then??

Natgas shares did go up today - did "participate".

[BOOOYAHOOO!]

Jacob, it looks like UTI can run to either 33.70 or 35.00, but I wouldn't personally touch it. The reason everyone is telling you that we are bottoming is because we just did! But it was a short term bottom. Today on Larry Krudlow's show he tried to voice his arguments about why stocks are cheap. Once again all arguments were based on PE's and thus earnings. Luckily for you they won't fool you because you already know that earnings in fact do not matter. And price targets that are based on earnings are worthless. 8O

[BOOOYAHOOO!]

Englishman, hmmmmm, I guess i underestimated the power of the first cold snap? :D But perhaps you will remember that I said just last week that Manny and the Nipulators would use the first cold snap to their benefit? :? Jim Cramer is the drummer in the band in case you didn't know. :D I do have a target top for the XOI and the OIH which are 2 energy related stock indicies. But at this point I seriously doubt it would make a difference to you energy permabulls so the best I can do is just promise you that i will be there to pick up the pieces. :wink: I would not predict a 10% down day on the DOW or any other index tomorrow for a few reasons. The markets never did a major swoon on a TUE, WEd, or Th. The markets haven't topped yet and I will use the VIX volatility index to guage the turn. I mentioned the low of 13.50 that needs to go. But if this is going to be a blowoff top then the VIX may trade all the way to next support at 12.15, or even down to the 11.45-11.85 gap support below that. I will say that when this thing turns you will see stocks losing 25%+ in a matter of days while the performance of the indicies is less dramatic to the downside. And the ones that will be the best long term buys will get dumped even harder as people start taking losses for tax purposes into year end. I'll be there for those fokes too! :wink:

[englishman26]

So we should just sell everything now and get a savings account because it's all terrible!?

[BOOOYAHOOO!]

Well Englishman, it's not a bad strategy. At least I don't think you will be sorry if you step aside for the next major wave of selling. The saying DOES go "buy low, sell high" :D Of course you could be like Cramer who thinks GOOG is now going to $500 based on what he said tonight, and buying right now means buying low as far as you're concerned. I'd transfer the money to my brokerage money market account for easy access. Maybe slim it down to 1 or 2 plays you can handle easily if things turn agin ya. Stops aren't going to do people much good in most cases. I never could figure out people who use stops anyway, unless they have a big profit. definitely not new buys though. Why would somebody get themselves stopped out of a stock with a loss just to buy back in above the price where they got out in the first place? And then set another stop to get their butts slightly to majorly whooped all over again? Go figure! :D

[jacobnbr1]

i wonder???? will cramer come on tv and say "i am sorry because i said we bottomed and we didnt" surly he knows how to read a chart. right? or does he? i hope the longs are ready for round two of the boxing match. i seen that it has been confirmed. the question is: when will the free fall begin? i cant wait... :wink:

[metalheadrr3]

I think he's mentioned a couple times he is strictly a fundamental person. He doesn't mess with Technical Analysis.

[BOOOYAHOOO!]

I don't think Cramer uses charts. But I believe he checks on ratios, seasonality, and other factors to help him determine the general sentiment of the markets. If he used charts and was proficient at it he never would have made 80% of the buy calls he made. So far Cramer's ramps have not changed the technicals on a single stock that I follow where he said buy, even after the huge moves that his ramp causes. That proves that the market moves independent of Cramer and he is not the market as he claims to be. All he does is give the stocks he recommends a premium they don't deserve which will be worked out in the end anyway. That means that if you buy on the day after he says to on Mad Money and that stock was already at or near a 52 week high, the chances are better than good that the extra premium tacked on comes right out of your wallet! We have already seen many cases where this is exactly what has happened. Poor suckers who bought PLAY, looka that pig today! His excuse last night was that he didn't know the company would be diluting. First of all, nobody does! Secondly, the chart knew it wasn't a buy at 28.00+ when he said it was. Oh well, chit happens! :wink:

[jacobnbr1]

I think he's mentioned a couple times he is strictly a fundamental person. He doesn't mess with Technical Analysis.

yes this is true, he does say that. i wonder for a guy who uses fundies to guide him, why in the world he would say "we hit a bottom" :idea: :idea:
clearly untrue. right :?

[BOOOYAHOOO!]

Jacob, he reserves the right to change his mind often! :lol: If you remember when he first started telling us about the Cramer tech rally he said INTC, CSCO, MSFT, stocks that have gone nowhere would lead. Now he's getting out the paddles on those dawgs and recommending only stuff that is going to get his viewers deeeeeeestroyed! :lol: We'll see what he says after AAPL, GOOG, and YHOO take a PLAY-type dump! By then he will probably give up on INTC, CSCO, and MSFT and we can all buy safely! :lol:

[BOOOYAHOOO!]

Otay! Last Sat I said that the Naz would turn somewhere between 2115 and 2120 and it in fact failed just below 2120 and then went into a mini tailspin. The best thing the bulls coulda-shoulda done would have been to let it fall below 2042 before tha VIX volatility index confirmed the 13.50 low. That would have assured a much stronger rally into Nov. But noooooo, da bulls is just too anxious for the next butt whoopin. So methinks that is exactly what they will get this coming week. It appears that the energy sector will drag the precious metal and "fear" stocks lower on Mon and probably into the Fed meeting on Tue. I wouldn't expect a really strong rally of 25+ points in the Naz, just a slow grind upwards as da VIX heads down to confirm the 13.50 low with a lower low. Once the high is in for the Naz I am not sure what the catalyst for the fall is going to be, perhaps another rise in the energy stocks, perhaps Alan Greenspan is going to do or say something to spook the markets, I'm not sure. The actual play to make when the Naz is topping is to take entry in some of the precious metal stocks and homeland security plays. They should be bottoming as the Naz is topping. Pecious metal stocks are a flight to safety. Homeland security stocks are a play on fear of a different kind. It is very suspicious that they are bottoming as the markets are topping. I think we will be in for some selling like we have not seen in the past 3 years because the bulls forced the issue this past week instead of letting nature run its course. When fear takes over, play the fear stocks. :wink: GOOG and SNDK should get hit particularly hard starting this week. YHOO begins its decent from a double top. I believe GOOG will fall sub 265 before the selling is over. It's a tad tougher to call it this week than it was last week but this is how I see it. Looks like time to take profits or use any rally early in the week to cut losses if you paid up because you believed in Cramer's tech rally. Looks like a tech wreck instead. 8O

[jacobnbr1]

Jacob, he reserves the right to change his mind often! :lol: If you remember when he first started telling us about the Cramer tech rally he said INTC, CSCO, MSFT, stocks that have gone nowhere would lead. Now he's getting out the paddles on those dawgs and recommending only stuff that is going to get his viewers deeeeeeestroyed! :lol: We'll see what he says after AAPL, GOOG, and YHOO take a PLAY-type dump! By then he will probably give up on INTC, CSCO, and MSFT and we can all buy safely! :lol:

yea. yea. if cramer can do it, i can too. it only takes one signal to change our minds as technical traders.. i be moving on to another book today on chart bottoms and tops and i am trying to findout what makes a top and makes a bottom in respect to bars on the chart, and how they should act. it is weird fliping from one book to another with differant authers, one thinks this and the other thinks that. i am reading a book from john murphy on technical analysis of bottoms and tops looking for patterns in the current market condition. i would have to say the mr. booyahoo has got some things from the books and some he has developed on his own. the universal story to ta is when the ma is broken, and not much more detail goes in to it. murphys book is better and says to look for volume fades on buy signals etc etc. one needs time to make sure he sees what is going on to confirm the learning is on the right path, for one can think they see the picture and be wrong, as i have often done. i will at some point in time master this market and be the wise trader. i never give up and will always try to further my knowledge in this field. for a guy who once had a brain damaging accident, i am doing just fine. this is hard business to learn and i think in my oppinion has made me reach higher for the skills to master it. the only down fall to it, is i am a little slower at comprehending what i read. soo i aint the sharpest blade in the knife block. but i will getrdone. :wink:

[BOOOYAHOOO!]

Jacob, I don't think you will learn much from John Murphy. I think he's actually one of the worst technicians out there. I don't think he could pick a bottom if it was stuck to HIS bottom. Most of the chart anal-ysts buy breakouts after consolidatons in uptrends. I remember John Murphy trying to pick the next wave up in some of the semis when the Naz was about half way through its move down to 1200. He liked Taiwan semi and his advice would have gotten you toatally deestroyed! Stan Weinstein had a good book out many years ago. But that was in the days before internet stock trading. Alot of TA things that used to work don't seem to apply any longer in the days of fast action. John Bollinger is pretty good. And Ralph Block who comes on CNBC periodically is also very good on his market direction calls. I developed my system by making a logical assumption. My assumption was that investor sentiment is probably more important than any type of funnymental aspects behind a stock. I assumed this because during the last tech wreck there were many stocks that actually started trading below their cash values that they had on hand. That didn't make sense to me. I mentioned TXCC. It had 1.40 in cash when it was trading below 1.00. But it didn't matter because people were skeered and they were going to sell no matter what. I experimented with many different indicators and found that DMI and OBV were the best at judging sentiment. Then i started looking for trends. How high above a major oversold signal does a stock usually move in the best case scenario? If a major trend low is put in according to the sentiment indicators, does it mean that it is absolute bottom? If a trend top is put in does it mean it is absolute top? Crap like that. I started picking out some trends that over time proved to happen with unbelievable consistancy. I have already made several calls which turned out to be pretty accurate, I doubt anyone will argue with that. Although XB is not going to believe F is going to see 5.50 until it gets there. :lol: What I do is a simple observation of trends based on investor sentiment. The surprising thing is that it is so simple that it is actually alot of fun to play with. I truly enjoy looking at charts all the time! :lol: I don't use moving averages, stochastics, MACD, none of the crap most people use to determine which way a stock or index will go. That's it. Confused? good! :D

[jacobnbr1]

i totally agree. i have stans books and i have a whole library of books. i buy practically 3 books a month. the books may have been right at one time, example stans best book was out 1989, it was what was happening in 1989 and accurate, but the market changed because of the books i am sure. the formula for making money was out for anybody to buy for a small amount of money.that said, it is only an investigation tactic i am applying that will lead me to where we are now. i still think the basics of stans book are alive today, but the reactions from stocks are differant per the institutional preasure etc.etc. i think scrub outs are lasting longer and trending lower, and i think stocks grow in respect to corporate greed. being in business myself has taught me the more money you have on hand, the more money you want. you like bottoms for a damn good reason, they are fast to double and are cheap enough you can let half ride incase they turn into a greed mountain like vlo, and appl.stans book explains really clear company fundies will be chit down here and nobody wants them. that statment still lives today. i love nothing more than getting somthing for damn near free and watching it quadroople in value. i like being a short seller-bear as long as i can guage the greed, i think greed has three parts and fear has one. that one fear factor is easier to play verses the three greeds. anyways i really appreciate the time you spend with me. i know your like cramer :lol: not about the friend thing, thanks. thanks for what you say? for bringing me over to the other site, and explaining stuff. now lets finish what we started and kick some bull bootaaaay. :D