Jay DeVincentis
09-27-2010, 01:10 PM
Jay DeVincentis's Daily Stock Barometer (http://61f877u-060l4kd1df3dnfubby.hop.clickbank.net/?tid=BODY)
9/27/2010 8:14:39 AM
The Hangover
Friday’s SQUEEZE, may lead to Monday Blues.
Periodically the markets set up in a perfect storm - and that goes both ways - it can result in a large down day or like Friday, a large up day.
Like a snowball rolling down a hill, gaining size and momentum, any idea in the market can magnify itself into one of these one day wonder type days where regardless of where the market is, it can move strongly in any direction.
The key is as I always say, follow through. So I tend not to get overly excited by one day’s action. However, if the market follows through in a direction, that would be significant.
The talk here is how strong September has been. And when I hear statements like that, I tend to get bearish. It’s just the contrarian in me. When people talk about record months in the market, they tend to revert to the mean before the month closes. That’s still what I’m looking for.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the market retraces most of the gains from Friday. But if the markets hang on here, then I’ll change my tune - although I’d probably close out our position than jump in to the long side. But that’s getting ahead of myself.
If the market is going to turn lower, it will need a catalyst. This morning, we have bonds rallying and retracing all of Friday’s losses. This is bearish for stocks. But on the bullish side, the dollar hasn’t rallied. If the dollar catches a bid here, that would create the ’storm’ to the downside.
On the economic calendar front, we have two reports for this morning. One at 9am, and the other at 10am. We don’t have an image for the 9am report, but it can get the market moving in one direction or another. And confidence at 10am is so low, it’s hard to see it not going higher...
5864 (http://61f877u-060l4kd1df3dnfubby.hop.clickbank.net/?tid=BODY)
Here are this week’s economic reports.
5865 (http://61f877u-060l4kd1df3dnfubby.hop.clickbank.net/?tid=BODY)
On to the charts:
5866 (http://61f877u-060l4kd1df3dnfubby.hop.clickbank.net/?tid=BODY)
Stock Barometer Analysis
We remain in Sell Mode, cautious of the current market action, but still expecting some downside. And if we do get selling, i.e. a fast move lower into the beginning of the month, then I would be bullish overall. However, if the market hangs up on highs here, then it’s setting up for a larger move lower and October will be a month to remember to the downdside.
The Stock Barometer is my proprietary market timing system. The direction, slope and level of the Stock Barometer determine our outlook. For example, if the barometer line is moving down, we are in Sell Mode. A Buy or Sell Signal is triggered when the indicator clearly changes direction. Trend and support can override the barometer signals.
Money Management & Stops
To trade this system, there are a few things you need to know and address to control your risk:
This system targets intermediate term moves, of which even in the best years, there are usually only up to 7 profitable intermediate term moves. The rest of the year will be consolidating moves where this system will experience small losses and gains that offset each other.
This system will usually result in losing trades more than 50% of the time, even in our best years. The key is being positioned properly for longer term moves when they come.
Therefore it is vitally important that you apply some form of money management to protect your capital.
Trading a leveraged index fund will result in more risk, since you cannot set stops and you cannot get out intraday.
Accordingly;
Make sure you set your stops so that you can lose no more than 2% per trade (based on the QQQQ if you're trading leveraged funds and options with our trading service).
Potential Cycle Reversal Dates
2010 Potential Reversal Dates: 1/19, 1/28, 3/2, 3/23, 4/7, 5/30, 6/10, 6/28, 7/10, 8/13, 9/7, 10/2, 10/27. We publish dates up to 2 months in advance.
10/2 could set up to be a low, but we’ll need some sharp, strong selling to pick up. We can get that, but every day we don’t suggests this date may be a top and we’ll get a stronger move lower following.
My Additional timing work is based on numerous cycles and has resulted in the above potential reversal dates. These are not to be confused with the barometer signals or cycle times. However, due to their past accuracy I post the dates here.
2009 Published Reversal Dates: 1/20, 2/11, 3/7, 3/15, 4/8, 4/16, 4/27, 5/7, 6/8, 7/2, 7/17, 9/14, 10/10, 10/24, 11/12, 11/30, 12/9, 12/21, 12/29. 2008 Potential Reversal Dates: 12/31, 1/11, 2/1, 2/13, 3/6, 4/5, 4/22, 5/23, 6/6, 6/27, 7/13, 9/2, 10/3, 10/22, 11/10, 12/11. 2007 Potential Reversal Dates: 1/10, 1/14, 1/27, 1/31, 2/3, 2/17, 3/10, 3/24, 4/21, 5/6, 6/15, 8/29, 10/19, 11/29, 12/13, 12/23, 12/31, 1/11/08. 2006 potential reversal dates: 1/16, 1/30, 2/25, 3/19, 4/8, 5/8, 5/19, 6/6(20), 7/24, 8/20, 8/29, 9/15, 10/11, 11/28. 2005 Potential reversal dates: 12/27, 1/25, 2/16, 3/4, 3/14, 3/29, 4/5, 4/19, 5/2, 6/3, 6/10, 7/13, 7/28, 8/12, 8/30-31, 9/22, 10/4, 11/15, 11/20, 12/16.
Spread Indicators
Use the following spread/momentum indicators to assist in your trading of the QQQQ, GLD, USD, USO and TLT. They are tuned to deliver signals in line with the Stock Barometer and we use them only in determining our overall outlook for the market and for pinpointing market reversals. The level, direction, and position to the zero line are keys in these indicators. For example, direction determines mode and a buy signal 'above zero' is more bullish than a buy signal 'below zero'.
QQQQ Spread Indicator (NASDAQ:QQQQ)
5867 (http://61f877u-060l4kd1df3dnfubby.hop.clickbank.net/?tid=BODY)
The QQQQ Spread Indicator will yield its own buy and sell signals that may be different from the Stock Barometer. It's meant to give us an idea of the next turn in the market.
Gold Spread Indicator (AMEX:GLD)
5868 (http://61f877u-060l4kd1df3dnfubby.hop.clickbank.net/?tid=BODY)
Want to trade Gold? Use our signals with the Gold ETF AMEX:GLD. Gold gives us a general gage to the overall health of the US Economy and the markets.
US Dollar Index Spread Indicator (INDEX:DXY)
5869 (http://61f877u-060l4kd1df3dnfubby.hop.clickbank.net/?tid=BODY)
Want to trade the US Dollar? Use our signals with the Power Shares AMEX:UUP: US Dollar Index Bullish Fund and AMEX:UDN: US Dollar Index Bearish Fund.
Bonds Spread Indicator (AMEX:TLT)
5870 (http://61f877u-060l4kd1df3dnfubby.hop.clickbank.net/?tid=BODY)
Want to trade Bonds? Use our signals with Lehman?s 20 year ETF AMEX:TLT. The direction of bonds has an impact on the stock market. Normally, as bonds go down, stocks will go up and as bonds go up, stocks will go down.
OIL Spread Indicator (AMEX:USO)
5871 (http://61f877u-060l4kd1df3dnfubby.hop.clickbank.net/?tid=BODY)
Want to trade OIL? Use our signals with AMEX:USO, the OIL ETF. We look at the price of oil as its level and direction has an impact on the stock market.
Supporting Secondary Indicator
5872 (http://61f877u-060l4kd1df3dnfubby.hop.clickbank.net/?tid=BODY)
We daily monitor hundreds of popular and proprietary technical indicators that break down market internals, sentiment and money flow to give us unique insight into the market. We feature at least one here each day in support of our current outlook.
Summary of Daily Outlook
We remain in Sell Mode, looking for either a sharp move lower into 10/2, or the market to consolidate sideways into 10/2 and an even larger move lower in October.
Showing another chart that looks at the spread of rsi on the Qs and the SPY. This argument I’ve been showing about the relative strength in the Qs over the SPY - normally this is a bullish thing, because we like it when tech leads rallies. But at some point, this has to correct. Whether it does it in a controlled fashion, or a rapid fashion is what we won’t know obviously until it happens.
Here are the indices pivots for today's trade.
5873 (http://61f877u-060l4kd1df3dnfubby.hop.clickbank.net/?tid=BODY)
Here's a deeper look at the S&P Futures - these levels are very important if you're going to day trade the market.
5874 (http://61f877u-060l4kd1df3dnfubby.hop.clickbank.net/?tid=BODY)
These levels can be important for both day traders and investors. How? Well, if you are going to take a stock position, it's always best to get the most efficient entry. Understanding that there are key pivots during the day and key levels that futures traders look for, will help you figure a better entry price (instead of just buying at the open). Combine these levels with the timing of the economic reports on the list at the top of the page, and you can really catch some nice swings in the market. More efficient trade entry increases your relative profit per trade.
On the trade front, if you think gold will reverse here, here’s a great way to play it:
5875 (http://61f877u-060l4kd1df3dnfubby.hop.clickbank.net/?tid=BODY)
We’ll be making this recommendation in our Explosive Stock Alert service this morning. It’s definitely a contrarian play. But I’ve made a living of being a contrarian...
Regards,
Jay DeVincentis - President - Investment Research Group, Inc.
Founder - www.stockbarometer.com (http://61f877u-060l4kd1df3dnfubby.hop.clickbank.net/?tid=BODY)
9/27/2010 8:14:39 AM
The Hangover
Friday’s SQUEEZE, may lead to Monday Blues.
Periodically the markets set up in a perfect storm - and that goes both ways - it can result in a large down day or like Friday, a large up day.
Like a snowball rolling down a hill, gaining size and momentum, any idea in the market can magnify itself into one of these one day wonder type days where regardless of where the market is, it can move strongly in any direction.
The key is as I always say, follow through. So I tend not to get overly excited by one day’s action. However, if the market follows through in a direction, that would be significant.
The talk here is how strong September has been. And when I hear statements like that, I tend to get bearish. It’s just the contrarian in me. When people talk about record months in the market, they tend to revert to the mean before the month closes. That’s still what I’m looking for.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the market retraces most of the gains from Friday. But if the markets hang on here, then I’ll change my tune - although I’d probably close out our position than jump in to the long side. But that’s getting ahead of myself.
If the market is going to turn lower, it will need a catalyst. This morning, we have bonds rallying and retracing all of Friday’s losses. This is bearish for stocks. But on the bullish side, the dollar hasn’t rallied. If the dollar catches a bid here, that would create the ’storm’ to the downside.
On the economic calendar front, we have two reports for this morning. One at 9am, and the other at 10am. We don’t have an image for the 9am report, but it can get the market moving in one direction or another. And confidence at 10am is so low, it’s hard to see it not going higher...
5864 (http://61f877u-060l4kd1df3dnfubby.hop.clickbank.net/?tid=BODY)
Here are this week’s economic reports.
5865 (http://61f877u-060l4kd1df3dnfubby.hop.clickbank.net/?tid=BODY)
On to the charts:
5866 (http://61f877u-060l4kd1df3dnfubby.hop.clickbank.net/?tid=BODY)
Stock Barometer Analysis
We remain in Sell Mode, cautious of the current market action, but still expecting some downside. And if we do get selling, i.e. a fast move lower into the beginning of the month, then I would be bullish overall. However, if the market hangs up on highs here, then it’s setting up for a larger move lower and October will be a month to remember to the downdside.
The Stock Barometer is my proprietary market timing system. The direction, slope and level of the Stock Barometer determine our outlook. For example, if the barometer line is moving down, we are in Sell Mode. A Buy or Sell Signal is triggered when the indicator clearly changes direction. Trend and support can override the barometer signals.
Money Management & Stops
To trade this system, there are a few things you need to know and address to control your risk:
This system targets intermediate term moves, of which even in the best years, there are usually only up to 7 profitable intermediate term moves. The rest of the year will be consolidating moves where this system will experience small losses and gains that offset each other.
This system will usually result in losing trades more than 50% of the time, even in our best years. The key is being positioned properly for longer term moves when they come.
Therefore it is vitally important that you apply some form of money management to protect your capital.
Trading a leveraged index fund will result in more risk, since you cannot set stops and you cannot get out intraday.
Accordingly;
Make sure you set your stops so that you can lose no more than 2% per trade (based on the QQQQ if you're trading leveraged funds and options with our trading service).
Potential Cycle Reversal Dates
2010 Potential Reversal Dates: 1/19, 1/28, 3/2, 3/23, 4/7, 5/30, 6/10, 6/28, 7/10, 8/13, 9/7, 10/2, 10/27. We publish dates up to 2 months in advance.
10/2 could set up to be a low, but we’ll need some sharp, strong selling to pick up. We can get that, but every day we don’t suggests this date may be a top and we’ll get a stronger move lower following.
My Additional timing work is based on numerous cycles and has resulted in the above potential reversal dates. These are not to be confused with the barometer signals or cycle times. However, due to their past accuracy I post the dates here.
2009 Published Reversal Dates: 1/20, 2/11, 3/7, 3/15, 4/8, 4/16, 4/27, 5/7, 6/8, 7/2, 7/17, 9/14, 10/10, 10/24, 11/12, 11/30, 12/9, 12/21, 12/29. 2008 Potential Reversal Dates: 12/31, 1/11, 2/1, 2/13, 3/6, 4/5, 4/22, 5/23, 6/6, 6/27, 7/13, 9/2, 10/3, 10/22, 11/10, 12/11. 2007 Potential Reversal Dates: 1/10, 1/14, 1/27, 1/31, 2/3, 2/17, 3/10, 3/24, 4/21, 5/6, 6/15, 8/29, 10/19, 11/29, 12/13, 12/23, 12/31, 1/11/08. 2006 potential reversal dates: 1/16, 1/30, 2/25, 3/19, 4/8, 5/8, 5/19, 6/6(20), 7/24, 8/20, 8/29, 9/15, 10/11, 11/28. 2005 Potential reversal dates: 12/27, 1/25, 2/16, 3/4, 3/14, 3/29, 4/5, 4/19, 5/2, 6/3, 6/10, 7/13, 7/28, 8/12, 8/30-31, 9/22, 10/4, 11/15, 11/20, 12/16.
Spread Indicators
Use the following spread/momentum indicators to assist in your trading of the QQQQ, GLD, USD, USO and TLT. They are tuned to deliver signals in line with the Stock Barometer and we use them only in determining our overall outlook for the market and for pinpointing market reversals. The level, direction, and position to the zero line are keys in these indicators. For example, direction determines mode and a buy signal 'above zero' is more bullish than a buy signal 'below zero'.
QQQQ Spread Indicator (NASDAQ:QQQQ)
5867 (http://61f877u-060l4kd1df3dnfubby.hop.clickbank.net/?tid=BODY)
The QQQQ Spread Indicator will yield its own buy and sell signals that may be different from the Stock Barometer. It's meant to give us an idea of the next turn in the market.
Gold Spread Indicator (AMEX:GLD)
5868 (http://61f877u-060l4kd1df3dnfubby.hop.clickbank.net/?tid=BODY)
Want to trade Gold? Use our signals with the Gold ETF AMEX:GLD. Gold gives us a general gage to the overall health of the US Economy and the markets.
US Dollar Index Spread Indicator (INDEX:DXY)
5869 (http://61f877u-060l4kd1df3dnfubby.hop.clickbank.net/?tid=BODY)
Want to trade the US Dollar? Use our signals with the Power Shares AMEX:UUP: US Dollar Index Bullish Fund and AMEX:UDN: US Dollar Index Bearish Fund.
Bonds Spread Indicator (AMEX:TLT)
5870 (http://61f877u-060l4kd1df3dnfubby.hop.clickbank.net/?tid=BODY)
Want to trade Bonds? Use our signals with Lehman?s 20 year ETF AMEX:TLT. The direction of bonds has an impact on the stock market. Normally, as bonds go down, stocks will go up and as bonds go up, stocks will go down.
OIL Spread Indicator (AMEX:USO)
5871 (http://61f877u-060l4kd1df3dnfubby.hop.clickbank.net/?tid=BODY)
Want to trade OIL? Use our signals with AMEX:USO, the OIL ETF. We look at the price of oil as its level and direction has an impact on the stock market.
Supporting Secondary Indicator
5872 (http://61f877u-060l4kd1df3dnfubby.hop.clickbank.net/?tid=BODY)
We daily monitor hundreds of popular and proprietary technical indicators that break down market internals, sentiment and money flow to give us unique insight into the market. We feature at least one here each day in support of our current outlook.
Summary of Daily Outlook
We remain in Sell Mode, looking for either a sharp move lower into 10/2, or the market to consolidate sideways into 10/2 and an even larger move lower in October.
Showing another chart that looks at the spread of rsi on the Qs and the SPY. This argument I’ve been showing about the relative strength in the Qs over the SPY - normally this is a bullish thing, because we like it when tech leads rallies. But at some point, this has to correct. Whether it does it in a controlled fashion, or a rapid fashion is what we won’t know obviously until it happens.
Here are the indices pivots for today's trade.
5873 (http://61f877u-060l4kd1df3dnfubby.hop.clickbank.net/?tid=BODY)
Here's a deeper look at the S&P Futures - these levels are very important if you're going to day trade the market.
5874 (http://61f877u-060l4kd1df3dnfubby.hop.clickbank.net/?tid=BODY)
These levels can be important for both day traders and investors. How? Well, if you are going to take a stock position, it's always best to get the most efficient entry. Understanding that there are key pivots during the day and key levels that futures traders look for, will help you figure a better entry price (instead of just buying at the open). Combine these levels with the timing of the economic reports on the list at the top of the page, and you can really catch some nice swings in the market. More efficient trade entry increases your relative profit per trade.
On the trade front, if you think gold will reverse here, here’s a great way to play it:
5875 (http://61f877u-060l4kd1df3dnfubby.hop.clickbank.net/?tid=BODY)
We’ll be making this recommendation in our Explosive Stock Alert service this morning. It’s definitely a contrarian play. But I’ve made a living of being a contrarian...
Regards,
Jay DeVincentis - President - Investment Research Group, Inc.
Founder - www.stockbarometer.com (http://61f877u-060l4kd1df3dnfubby.hop.clickbank.net/?tid=BODY)